Raising the River

And a little bit more

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:07:00 +0000

Another +50BB on RedStar 3/6 tonight and I am back above the $10k profit line for the third time. Cue the next massive cooler?

Swing swong

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:39:00 +0000

This is getting a little bit insane.

I redeposited on RedStar the other day to take up a reload bonus, and managed to win nearly 70BB in the space of about 150 hands of $3/6 yesterday. It's not quite the same as E5/10, but it was a welcome recovery after my horror session on PL.

I am now looking forward to a work trip to Sydney and the opportunity to play in one of the APPT lead up events.

Do the poker gods read my blog?

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:56:00 +0000

God know few others do.

I need to stop posting my wins. Seriously. I just took a massive reaming on some seriously fishy 5/10 Euro tables on Purple. $1200, or about 80BB in the space of about 90 minutes. Standard stuff, but just hand after hand - my AJ < AK on A high board. My AJ < AQ on A high board . My tptk crushed by turned 2 pair. My flopped set crushed by the paired turn(bigger boat) . Second pairs losing to top pairs. Huge draws (str8flush+overs) not getting there.

Just Ugh.

Variance insanity

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 02:43:00 +0000

I have had an upswing of $3k in the last week, nearly all of it at the fish tank which is Purple Lounge. That's just crazy stuff - the equivalent of at least 300BB at the stakes I usually play. It follows a nearly $1k downswing over the week previous to that, so it's not entirely plain sailing.

Of course all of this is raindrops compared to the utter insanity of the high stakes action at Full Tilt of the last week or so. Unknown newcomer 'Isidur1' has been wreaking absolute havoc - yesterday he was playing eight simultaneous tables ($500/$1000 blinds NLH) against the three best players in the world: Phil Ivey, Patrik Antonius and Tom 'durrrr' Dwan. The new guy is up overall to the tune of about 4 million, mainly thanks to crushing durrrr in some insane six table matches, but all these guys have seen million dollar swings over the last few days.

Shot taking WIN

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 06:34:00 +0000

Fishy table, 10/20 Euro, 4-5 handed. Insanity right?

I decided to have a shot based on running good the last few days (great strategy amirite?) and I have to say this: Winning a humungous pot with AA on the second hand does great things for your ability to play poker properly (and not like some nitty shot taker).

End result: back over the $10k profit mark at last (only took two months)

A very belated update

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:52:00 +0000

Ok, so I haven't posted now for nearly six weeks. To be honest, I've been running so badly that I didn't want to bore everybody with a litany of bad beats, coolers and tilt.

My worst day (ever) was just last week, when I somehow managed to dump 200 big bets (over $1000) in a couple of hours playing 2/4 and 3/6. This pretty well puts paid to the notion that 300BB is a big enough bankroll for limit.

As for the missing months: September was a net -$300, and October was a net -$500.

You would think that November was going the same way after that $1000 turdball, but you would be wrong. Somehow I managed to turn it around with a $1000 winner yesterday on Purple Lounge. That was around 100 big bets playing between 2/4 and 5/10 Euro.

It started with a pretty long heads up session against a loose/weak fish. I must have been running good, but this guy was so bad I don't think I could have lost even with bad cards. He was seeing about 70% of flops, but with only 25% WTSD. He was folding about 40% of the time to Cbets, and frequently limped his button letting me see free flops with rags. He also failed to Cbet when he missed on scary boards, letting me take down lots of pots with nothing. This stuff is suicide heads up, and I took him to the cleaners (even though HU is not my best game). I felt that I couldn't lose even if I ran bad. There is something very primal about playing heads up until one of you goes busto. This wasn't durrrr vs Isildur1, but it felt like it to me with my tiny little roll.

Shortly after that, I ran into my old friend johnoda, a 75/10 fish who took me to the cleaners at a HU 10/20 Euro game some time ago (which I then recovered from him the next day at 5/10 6max). Found the Jesus seat on a 5/10 table, with a couple of nits on my left - just how I like it. I continued to run good there, and on a couple of other tables (again, well placed with nits on the left and fish on the right). I even managed to survive a huge cooler, when I ran my AK into QQ on a flop of QKK. That wasn't very pretty, but about three hands later I ran my A7cc into the same guy's KQcd on a flop of JT6ccc with the fourth club on the turn.

The win is my biggest ever one day total on cash tables. And boy did I need it after the worst day only last week. As an added bonus, I should have a huge bonus coming in as a result of my VIP deal with Purple Lounge.

Bad to worse

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 08:52:00 +0000

Run bad -> run worse -> tilt monkey.

I need to take some time to reassess what I'm doing. The last couple of weeks have been horrific. Tilt manifests itself in an unwillingness to get up from a game when stuck, even when the table has ceased to be good.

Two steps forward and three (or five) steps back

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 01:20:00 +0000

I should just shut my mouth. Seriously.

Last night was horrific. Over 100BB in the space of about two hours. Most of it was at 2/4EUR, where one particular megafish (who was seeing 100% of flops and about 60% of showdowns) was running all over me. He started out on my left, which was horrendous because he was also pretty aggressive. I managed to get him on my right, but by then much of the damage was done.

The $10k mark is suddenly quite a long way off, and it will probably get a bit further, as I am planning to play a qualifier at the casino tonight.

One small comfort is that I'll get a couple of hundred in rakeback at the end of the month, but I am still left with a bad taste.

The swings and the roundabouts

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 07:58:00 +0000

I was all set to write a "woe is me" post on how badly I have run since hitting the $10k milestone last week, but actually I have made a pretty rapid recovery. The low point was at least $800 down on the peak (probably more, because I think I sank lower mid-session). In the last couple of sessions, I have managed to recover to be only $300 under the peak, and set to bust through that $10k mark permanently.

As usual, the swings are down to playing at the limit of my online stakes - 5/10Euro on Purple Lounge. There have been one or two tables running at this stake every night for the last couple of weeks, and it is pretty good fishing territory. I have seen at least two or three different megafish in this game with stats like 70/10/0.8, and a whole host of bad regs (too loose mostly) that are losing a lot of money according to my DB. Sadly the downs have exceeded the ups on 5/10 in the last few days, with the wins coming mainly from 2/4 - but I'm sure I'm going to hit some cards soon and have a big win.

If anyone wants a great VIP deal on Purple Lounge, check out the notice on the right of the blog and drop me a line.

The thing about milestones:

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:36:00 +0000

.. is that hitting them doesn't mean you stay in front of them.

In fact, my experience so far has been that hitting milestones is often followed by a massive cooler (as BCG will attest), or a heater that causes you to hit the *next* milestone before you know it.

In my case, it was the former. I had a crazy swinging session yesterday, where I ranged from being $200 up to being nearly $800 down (5/10 and 3/6 Euro will do that to you). Luckily I managed to finish ok and am now just $150 down from my $10k milestone, and with a chunky bit of rakeback to come.

Five figures: just call me Jesus

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 05:50:00 +0000

A little over 20 months ago, I started playing online poker with $10 of free money from VCpoker. Today, I moved my "net profit" over the $10,000 mark for the first time. I don't think I expected to be able to do that when I started, and it feels pretty good.

My actual bankroll is actually still down around the $8800 mark, due to taking some dividends and also the small loss on Eurolinx. My aim for the year was to achieve a $10k bankroll by the end of the year, and that is well on track even though I thought it ambitious at the time.

In my mind, I have achieved my own version of Chris 'Jesus' Ferguson's $10,000 challenge (Ferguson started from zero and ground up to $10k on FTP over the course of about 16 months). Of course the two challenges are not really comparable, since I made liberal use of bonuses and rakeback to achieve my target, while Ferguson had to do it over the table only. On the other hand, Ferguson started his challenge as a professional player while I was Joe Nobody.

To steal a good line: "I don't think this is quite what they meant when they taught me to be more like Jesus"

The Blindman is now an affiliate!

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:39:00 +0000

I have an excellent VIP offer on Purple Lounge. If anyone is interested, email me at blindmanaffiliate@gmail.com, and I can give you the full details of the offer along with signup instructions.

Purple Lounge is on the Microgaming network, which I have found to be infested with fish at fixed limit up to 5/10 Euro. There are obviously some concerns about Microgaming after the Eurolinx debacle, but it still seems to be pretty viable with big rooms like Ladbrokes and Unibet providing a lot of players.

Running good

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:20:00 +0000

Had a nice reminder yesterday of what it's like to run good. 25BB in five minutes of 2/4EUR (and 350 overall for the session) is pretty nice. The bigger part of that was after getting sucked into a huge pot with JTs capped preflop. Usual story - couple of limpers, I limp along, one of the blinds raises, I call, one of the limpers decides to jack it up and suddenly we are five way in a humungous pot. Flop comes AJx (at which point I think this is going to be one expensive hand), and I check call one or possibly two bets. Turn is another jack, and I check call again. Checkraise the blank river heads up against the preflop raiser and drag a humungous pot.

I'm back to playing mostly on Microgaming, even after the Eurolinx debacle. I've got a ludicrously good rakeback deal on Purple Lounge and I can't resist the megafishes that play up to 5/10EUR. I'll be careful about my bankroll on the site, and on balance I think the risk is worth it.

Belated August summary

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:53:00 +0000

Usual story, really. Started the month with a horrific cooler, recovered late to be well ahead and finished a little bit on the cool side.

Bankroll started at $8286, and finished on $8333. That takes into account the fact that I had to transfer $253 from my bankroll to a new "losses" column owing to the collapse of Eurolinx. It's possible I will one day see some of that money, but I somehow doubt it.

The gain in "total profit" was a pretty measly $301. Most of that probably came from bonuses and rakeback.

My biggest problem at the moment is that my lucrative sites have dried up. The NoiQ rake races which once were fantastic have turned into wimpy weekly bonuses worth 10% at best (for me). The RedStar rake race turned into a "rake chase" which is a complete waste of time. Eurolinx, of course, has died completely, taking with it a rake race which has paid amazing dividends for most of the last year.

My main objective for this month, then is to find a new decent long term room with decent rakeback and something extra like a race or regular bonus. In the meantime, I might also look for a quick kickback or two.

Mid-September update:

I now have a pretty good rakeback deal on Purple Lounge, which allows me to continue cashing in on the Microgaming fish. Continuing to play on Microgaming sites is a bit risky, since they obviously do not have adequate protection for punters. I will protect myself as much as I can by minimizing my roll on the site as much as I can. On the whole I think it's worth the risk. Just.

I also decided to do the Regalos PokerTime kickback bonus. This bonus looks very attractive, at around $200 and 200%RB equivalent. The problem is that PokerTime (previously on the Microgaming network) is now a stand-alone room - a fact I was unaware of when I signed up. They now have barely twenty tables running at any one time, all no-limit holdem, and only 3-4 at NL50 or above. I am still going to finish the kickback, as it is very easy and the players on the site are laughably bad. The biggest downside is that almost everyone on the site is short stacking - probably because they're all doing kickbacks at >100% rakeback. This site is going nowhere fast, and I am going to finish the deal and cash out as soon as humanly possible.

In other news, I have burned a whole stack of cash on Full Tilt attempting to do their "take 2" promotion. Yuk.

Dodging bullets: Eurolinx bites the dust

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 00:59:00 +0000

The following message appears on the Eurolinx website:

MALTA – The Linx Media Group has today announced that it is seeking to put its businesses into liquidation and will cease trading with immediate effect. As yet, the Linx Media Group does not know how long this process will take, but it will provide updates on the situation as and when information becomes available and when liquidators are appointed.

This is a tragedy for the online gaming industry. Eurolinx was a popular cardroom on the Microgaming network. It had a reputation for running really good promotions and for looking after its players.

The warning signs came as early as April, when some players started reporting delays in withdrawals on 2+2.

I have played on Eurolinx for nearly a year, and did very well out of the rakeback, bonuses and a series of lucrative rake races via Rake the Rake. I noticed the 2+2 thread around the beginning of June, and was surprised as I had received a withdrawal without problems at the end of April. The thread concerned me enough to request a withdrawal of just about half my balance. After a number of emails, I eventually got my money in early July. The problems were appearing to persist, so I withdrew a further substantial part of my bankroll immedately. The latter withdrawal was received in early August after an email to RTR. It now looks like I may have been one of the last players to receive money from Eurolinx, and some of the players that were waiting since April never received their money. As it happens, I busted the few hundred dollars I had remaining on Eurolinx and so my balance at the time of liquidation was just $250 due to some rake races and rakeback. There is no doubt that I have been very fortunate to escape from this situation - at the time that I became aware of the problems I had nearly 25% of my bankroll on the site.

Some players are reporting losses in excess of $250,000. Some players had their entire bankroll on Eurolinx. Many are being put in very difficult personal situations due to this loss of money.

What lessons can be drawn from this debacle? Firstly, it is essential to diversify online money. It is a mistake to keep your entire bankroll in any one place, even Neteller or reputable sites like Pokerstars. I think I will be pulling a few $000 offline in the coming month partly to protect it, and partly to get it working earning interest.

Secondly, there are now legitimate concerns being raised about the way Microgaming is run. It is evident that Eurolinx was 'investing' player deposits on real estate and stocks, and was irreparably damaged by the financial crisis. One wonders how Microgaming is set up that its skins can be allowed to operate in this way without liquid reserves sufficient to cover player deposits. A number of Microgaming skins connected with the Tusk company collapsed last year, so there are now some serious concerns about the viability of Microgaming overall.

Running good is awesome.

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:28:00 +0000

Played the $5k guaranteed on Cake on Friday ($10 rebuy, 162 runners). Had another deep run, accompanied by the most incredible "run good" I have ever experienced in a tournament. At the 25/50 level I had 310 big blinds at one stage. Then, after donking off half my stack in a fit of stupidity (see the AKcc hand below) I went on an unreal winning stack, until I was chipleader with nearly three times as many chips as second place, and with 15% of the total chips with 30 odd players left. Unfortunately despite that I only managed to finish 5th for $280 rather than 1st for $1000 odd.

The finish was pretty disappointing. I lost a chunk to a preflop reshove with AQ vs QQ. I figured that he could have been stealing, but actually I should really have been playing smaller ball versus an early position raiser. After that came two just bad beats which put me out (flopped set < rivered straight and AQ < KJ AIPF). Winning either would have placed me well within shot of winning, but it wasn't to be. Bottom line is that you really need to run good for the last hour, not the middle hour.

A good live session

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 03:26:00 +0000

Played the 85+15 "deepstack" on Tuesday. I say deepstack, but when level 5 goes from 100/200 to 200/400 and level 7 goes from 300/600 to 500/1000 it gets very shallow very quickly. By the time we reached the second break, the average chipstack was down to 10 big blinds (I had a "good" stack with 16).

I had a fairly good run, and ended up splitting 10th place for a min cash. We also had a little sweetener for the bubble, so I came away with an awesome $30 profit from 5 hours of poker :-/

The final hand had the poker Gods pissing with me. I shoved 69cc (big blind special) on a JJ4cc board. JQ reshoved. Turn 2c . River 2h .

I then sat in the 10/20 limit for an hour or so because I had arranged to meet up with another player. I had a good run and came away with $330 profit. It would have been a lot more if I hadn't been busted twice (in about five hands) by runner-runner one card flushes. At least I checked behind on the river both times.

The last hand was a classic. I was UTG with 67dd. I would normally dump it, but the table was loose and passive so it wasn't a bad spot to gamble (plus it was my last hand). I limped, expecting a good chance of a 4-5 way pot since the players are so bad. Another limper, a late position raise, BB calls and we see a flop 4 ways. Flop comes down T98 rainbow, so I have the arse end of the straight. BB checks, and I check planning to checkraise. PFR bets as promised, but then the BB checkraises. I don't quite know what to make of this. He could easily have QJ, but sets and two pair are quite possible too or pair and a draw. I flat call, and everyone calls. Turn is blank, like a 2 no flush draws I think. BB leads and I just call. River is a K, BB checks (Eureka) I bet and everyone calls. MHIG and I rake a 16 big bet pot .

My line was pretty weak to be honest. I think I should be at least raising the turn to make anyone with a jack or queen pay the maximum. Still, I managed to be paid off nicely by all the missed draws anyway.

(almost) Every Hand Revealed

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 12:25:00 +0000

I played the $50k guarantee ($75 buyin) on Pacific this morning (3:30am), courtesy of a free ticket. I managed a pretty deep run, and was actually chipleader at a few points. Sadly I made a few bad errors and had a difficult run towards the end, and ended up with a min cash of $140. This was sadly a long way short of the $12.5k 1st prize that I was aiming for.

I suspect my lack of NL tournament experience showed at times, and in general I did run good in the early to middle stages. I'd be interested in some expert comments.

Here is pretty much the whole tournament laid bare. These are the key pots (all pots where I won or lost 10 or more big blinds). Starting stack was 5000, 10/20 blinds, 20 minute levels.

Individual hand comments:

35: This was the first hand of the tournament. Gotta love flopping two pair and turning a boat. The river bet was an attempt to look bluffy by overbetting the pot. It's tough to get good value so early.
JTdd: Getting busy in late position here. As you can see, the play was pretty retarded for a $75 tournament. Incredible that he can go bust with a single pair here.
54o: Another two pair. This time I am probably giving the flush draw too good a price, but I wanted to keep the pot under control with such a vulnerable hand. The donk bet on the river was a dead giveaway - I probably would have value bet significantly more if he checked to me.
TT: This is probably my limit play getting the better of me. When an overcard flops my pair, I like to raise the flop and see a cheap showdown. I think this early I should probably give the flop donk bet respect, as the players are generally pretty obvious. Dropping so much on the hand was pretty poor, but I was suspiscious of the small bets.
QTo: Getting busy on the button again, and again it works out well. I probably could have got better value out here. Turn check was an attempt to get him to lead the river, but maybe I just need to play straightforwardly and extract maximum value from his K or A.
35hh: Middle pair on the flop, plus a gutshot on the turn. I thought the combination of the turned ace and the rivered pair and flush made it a good spot to bluff, but it didn't come off. I think he folds without an ace.
J9cc: Pretty straightforward. Is there any point in value betting this river? I suspect not.
QQ: Another nice hand. Should I bet the turn? I figured the pot was big enough to get a decent value bet in on the river anyway.
TT: A monster hand, which basically set up my run. It's a cooler for AA, but A2dd got what he deserved.
KQdd: A bit cheeky to fire the second barrel here, but it worked out ok. I shutdown if he calls, obviously.
JJ: Always getting it in versus the shortstack here, and run good enough to river my two outer.
J6dd: Just got drawn into this hand, and hit the wrong outs on the river. I don't really think I could have played it differently.
A8o: Weird hand. Scary board, but the minbets on flop and turn made it pretty clear that he had nothing. I might have folded a bigger river bet, gutshot being the only real possibility for a good hand.
TT: A lot of limping on this table. I liked to punish this tendency from late position. Villain was short, so race was inevitable.
JQss: I should explain that asbo was the megafish on this table. He open limped any two cards, and liked to donk any flop and often followed up on the turn and/or river. But he often folded when put under pressure. After the turn raise, I have to credit him for a hand, and just call for my double belly outs.
AJcc: Overcards plus flushdraw I figure good enough for this allin checkraise. My equity was certainly enough unless he has a set or big pair. I saw a lot of light calls during this tournament.
KQo: Did I mention that asbo was retarded? He claimed this was a bluff gone wrong, but that does not explain his final call on the river. He copped a lot of shit from the table after this.
AQdd: Huge, huge hand. Flop and turn were obviously semibluffs. The river 2.5x pot bluff was just completely inexplicable. I just couldn't put him on the backdoor flush, and surely sets would have done something smaller sooner? Whatever, it was a big call and put me into the tournament chiplead. The guy gave me shit about it for ages, basically calling me a fish for calling his retarded bluff, but whatever.
AQo: Did I mention that asbo was retarded? Yeah, I guess I did. I'll isoraise him all day, and float his inevitable donk bets liberally. Amazingly, he was still building a big stack by pushing the rest of the table around with these obvious and repeated bluffs.
A7o: Isoraising the fish again (the rest of the table were pretty weak, notably the BB here). My top pair is good 90% of the time here. Turn raise, because my kicker problem went away. Unfortunately it came back on the river. Cest la vie.
AQcc: Muppet from previous hand. Shortstack shove is quite likely to be air, but if not my pair outs ought to be good.
JQo: Detecting a pattern here? I like this button raise, especially when it folds out the other limper and leaves me with asbo once again. I had seen this river bluff so often, this was an instacall. After this hand, I hit my peak of 80k in chips which put me comfortably chipleader, with maybe 150 players left.
88: To be honest, I should find a fold here after the limp-reraise from the very tight player. But I figured he might have AK often enough that it was worth calling the short shove.
AJcc: Should probably fold the flop checkraise here. This guy hadn't got too out of line. Turn bet was obviously too big to go fishing for a flush. But part of me still thought that he had air and was just making a play against my presumed blind steal.

After that hand, there was a hell of a long time where I picked up nothing. Very little preflop, and nothing at all to play beyond the flop. Few opportunities to steal (or none). Worse however, I was moved tables leaving my megafish and assorted weak tighties behind.

KQdd: Preflop is fine. On the flop I just need to fold with the guy behind me. Raising was asking for trouble, and I got it. Shut down once he called my raise.
72o: Nice hand to bust out on eh? Flopping top pair is all very nice, but I probably shouldn't push it with four players seeing the flop. The raise is questionable to say the least. Once AAMERICK shoved over the top, I recalled the KQdd hand and figured he could be making a play recalling the same hand. The bet size certainly looked like it didn't want to see a call. Daft way to play a set, but perhaps an even dafter way to play 72o. Note in my defence: I had been playing for over five hours by this stage, having woken at 3:30am to play.

It's notable that I went from 200/400 to 800/1600 (6 levels) winning only one hand of note. So if my early tournament was a heater (you bet), then my late tournament was probably a cooler.

A punch in the guts

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:18:00 +0000

45 minutes, $400 down the toilet. It happened so fast I want to punch someone.

Here are the highlights from one table:

Reevaluating opening range

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 11:41:00 +0000

Looking at the stats for my last post made me have a little think about whether I am playing a little too laggy, so I thought I would go back to basics and have a look at my opening ranges.

To keep things simple, I am looking at 6max fixed limit games from 1/2 up. Initially, I am simply looking at my opening range UTG or UTG+1. This opening range more or less calibrates my range in other positions and with other action (limpers, raises in front etc).

Using Holdem Manager's filters, I selected for these conditions and came up with about 11000 hands which is not a bad sample (about 100 of each offsuit hand, 30 of each suited and 50 of each pair). Then I can see what I normally do with each hand in these positions, and what the average result is.

My current opening range is something along these lines: 22+, A7o+, A5s+, K9o+, K7s+, QTs+, QJo, suited connectors down to 87. Sometimes I also play the other suited aces, QTo, Q9s, J9s and a few other marginal hands.

This is a fair bit laggier than the Stox recommendation, which is roughly: 55+, A7s+, A9o+, K9s+, KQo, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s.

Looking at my database, I discovered the following interesting facts:

All the pocket pairs are profitable
Almost all the suited aces are profitable, except A2s.
Suited kings are profitable down to K9 (with the exception of an unusually bad KQ). Lower kings are marginal but not bad.
Suited connectors and 1 gappers are basically marginal all the way down. Everything else is not worth worrying about.
A8o and lower are pretty clearly unprofitable.
KTo is one of my most profitable unsuited hands (weird, must be an outlier I guess). KJo and KQo are also pretty solid winners.
All the other unsuited hands are marginal at best. QJ is maybe the only one that is playable.

The conclusion I draw from this is that it is pretty clear that I need to tighten up all around, except for perhaps loosening the small suited aces.

The opening range I come up with is this:

33+, A2s+, ATo+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs.

If I'm at a tight table I can add the following: 22, A8o+, K5s+, K9o, Q9s, QTo, suited connectors and gappers down to 54 and 64. But in general all these hands will do nothing except for increase variance.

Note that this analysis is based on my stats, which means it is heavily influenced by the way I have played these hands postflop. Obviously, the better you play postflop, the more hands you can play pre. I suspect I don't play all that well out of position, hence the need to tighten up in these early spots.

Am I a winning player?

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 01:59:00 +0000

A couple of days of run good does wonders for the confidence. Yesterday was a pretty solid $300 winner. Some of it was running good, but I also made some good plays like carefully calculating my outs to call two cold on the turn with bottom pair and a gutshot (catching the gutshot to win a huge pot). I also made a good call with king high to a weird donk bet on the river.

For a long time I have been wondering if I am actually a winning player or not. Obviously I am if you include rakeback and bonuses and all the rest, but I'd really like to think I am winning at the table as well. For a long time my winnings were almost excusively down to bonuses, and I was actually a significant loser at 1/2. At 2/4, initial success succumbed to a massive downswing to take me into negative territory there as well.

Looking afresh at my results over the last six months, I think I can say with moderate confidence that I am a winning fixed limit player at the tables as well now.

A few things to note:

I am definitely a LAG. Much looser than bort for example. I am probably verging on Loose/bad at 1/2, perhaps because I am not playing "properly" due to the money being small.
3/6 seems to be a sweet spot, but in general it is interesting that I don't win any more at lower stakes than at those higher stakes.
0.5/1 is down to a huge cooler while trying to qualify for a freeroll ticket on Titan with a very small roll. Why I was playing 0.25/0.50 I have no idea :)
HEM only imports Cake hands after May 5th (new file format), and therefore my massive April heater on RedStar isn't included. That should boost the 3/6 stats a bit further when they eventually support the old hand histories.
Despite playing quite a lot of hours, I actually play relatively few hands. Many grinders would play this many hands in one month. My preference is to play no more than 3 tables, or 4 at a stretch. I will never comprehend the 12 table grinders.
I think it's a fairly representative sample, since it includes the tail end of the huge downswing at the start of the year and the recent downswing as well as the April-May heater.
My stats over "all hands" is not nearly as good as these for the last six months. But that just means I'm getting better, right?

Downswing officially over

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:59:00 +0000

My last peak prior to the big downswing was June 7th, and I am very happy to have eclipsed that mark. One month in the doldrums I can handle - it's when it stretches out to two and three that it drives you up the wall.

Bad news this month though in that RTR have dropped the RedStar rake race, which is very bad news. Choosing a Cake room seems to be a bit of a lottery, since you can only have one room with rakeback and the promotions change so much from month to month. I have a deposit bonus to finish, but once that's done I may need to find another room or two.

June summary: rakeback FTW!

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:57:00 +0000

In something of a miracle, I have ended June in (marginal) profit. I started the month with a BR of $7909 and finished with $7964 for a princely profit of $45. I actually owe myself some dividend from last month so that will probably drop a little bit.

That result is actually pretty good, considering that I found myself in a $1500 hole at one point. It was, of course, rakeback that saved me - I have a policy of only adding rakeback to my account at the end of each month. I made about $470 in rakeback and another $400 in rake races, along with $100 of the RedStar signup bonus. That means that I lost over ($900) on the tables, which is not a very marvellous result.

I had a nice short shot at 5/10Euro the other night with one of my favourite fish which provided something of a boost. I resisted the temptation to join a very juicy looking 10/20Euro table yesterday. I think I want to get the BR to $10k before I get too deep in those kinds of games.

By the way, my Eurolinx withdrawal finally came through after nearly a month of waiting. I'm really hoping they have sorted out their problems, because it is still one of my favourite sites to play with some great races and promotions. I've just requested another withdrawal to keep a minimum bankroll on the site, and am hoping this one comes through much more quickly.

PLOtastic

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 09:03:00 +0000

I rocked up for a $100 PLO donkament at Burswood on Tuesday with a pretty solid understanding that I suck at PLO. I was joined by none other than TiocfaidhArLa from "Poker Career Downunder", who flew in - scheduled to arrive at the airport at 6:35, made it to the casino by about 6:55 (tourney started at 6:30) and got to his stack only 150 down. It was a pleasure to finally catch up, and we managed to have a good chat over a beer as well as playing a bit of (lol)limitaments afterwards. He busted out of the PLO shortly before me.

Played pretty tight for quite a while and found no playable hands. My first raggy AA hand I limped in EP intending to RR if the opportunity arose. Alas, it was called in about 5 places and I had to release it on the flop. The second AA hand I raised in MP, called from the button. Flop top set, but don't get paid. Maybe I could have checked it since the board was raggy but NM.

First really big hand was AKQ9, maybe double suited, maybe button. I Raised, flop goes 3 way. Flop KK9. Checked to me, I bet out nearly pot. One caller on my left (has me covered). Turn A (oh yes), I bet, he calls, river rags out and we get it all in. MHIG: he says he had K9. A couple more small pots and I am up to nearly 11k in chips with average still at 3.5k.

Then I lose a bit to a short stack, my KK53hhcc against his KQQxss when he makes a spade flush on the river. Move to a new table and the next big hand (cooler): I have AKJJss, pot it, flop goes 3 ways. Flop is JT6dd. I pot, call, guy on my right with Tourettes (but seemed like a really good bloke) raises AI, I call, other player folds. He has TT with the diamond draw. Diamond comes on the turn, river does not fill my boat. After that, I wasn't quite crippled but pretty badly damaged. I lost another AIPF against a dominated short stack with something like AKKJ to his KQTx with him making some stupid straight or something. My really bad hand (getting a bit short) was to raise KJT9cc, flop comes ATxhh, and I pot in an attempt to take it down. He RR me all-in, and I fold (he showed AQTx no hearts). I probably had the odds to call for the gutshot, but elected to limp on with my remaining pittance. It didn't last too long - I got it in good heads up once again but got drawn out on the turn.

Not too unhappy with how I played. If my top set of jacks had held up, I would have been in pretty good position to final table and maybe cash. And of course it was about 100 times better than the last rebuy PLO where i didn't win a single pot.

After that, I played 90 minutes or so of limit. Had pretty good position on two truly awful players. One middle aged lady (regular) who limp calls almost any cards preflop and cold calls most raises, and plays cards virtually face up postflop. The other was a chubby guy from Victoria who sounded like he plays a lot but just played so bad, calling down bottom pair to bets and raises multi-way etc. Anyway I started by losing nearly 100 when I raise JJ in MP, and get called by the usual suspects. I bet all the way on a board of tiny cards, and get raised on the end with the board reading something like 23459. I can probably fold easily here, but the pot was huge so I called to see not one but two players catching 6 high gutshots on the end (to be fair, one of them had a small pair to go with it, but still).

After that I won a decent pot with 77ui on a K25Tx board. I Cbet the flop (3 way), and the turn went check-check, so I value bet the river. I got raised and nearly folded since chubby was AI and the sidepot was tiny, but I call and he can't beat chubby's pair of 2s so MHIG. After that I won another decent hand and left exactly even to the dollar. But wow, the standard of play on that table was terrible. There were a couple of regs at the other end of the table who were decent, everyone else (except for TFAL sitting in the Jesus seat on my right) was either a passive calling station or a rock.

footnote:

Playing poker with Tourettes must be a particular challenge. The guy in the tournament was twitching constantly, occasionally shaking his head dramatically, and sometimes letting out an unintentional expletive. I didn't really try too hard to get a read on his tics, but I'm sure they must be readable.

Diary of a sick cooler.

noreply@blogger.com (The blindman) — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 15:04:00 +0000

It's like some strange twisted version of Newton's law. Every heater is followed by an equal and opposite cooler. The last week has been incredibly sick. The bankroll has taken a hit of over 20%. That's probably about 250 big bets on average. Not a whole lot of fun.

It feels of course as though my decent hands are just not holding up, so I had a little look at HEM. This is the last 500 hands of 5/10 sorted by starting hand:

And 3/6:
And 2/4:

I think it's quite bad, but on the upside, I picked up 50EUR for the losing aces hands via a Eurolinx promo (if I ever get my $$ out). I also won 100 Euro while writing this post.