Belated August summary

Usual story, really. Started the month with a horrific cooler, recovered late to be well ahead and finished a little bit on the cool side.

Bankroll started at $8286, and finished on $8333. That takes into account the fact that I had to transfer $253 from my bankroll to a new "losses" column owing to the collapse of Eurolinx. It's possible I will one day see some of that money, but I somehow doubt it.

The gain in "total profit" was a pretty measly $301. Most of that probably came from bonuses and rakeback.

My biggest problem at the moment is that my lucrative sites have dried up. The NoiQ rake races which once were fantastic have turned into wimpy weekly bonuses worth 10% at best (for me). The RedStar rake race turned into a "rake chase" which is a complete waste of time. Eurolinx, of course, has died completely, taking with it a rake race which has paid amazing dividends for most of the last year.

My main objective for this month, then is to find a new decent long term room with decent rakeback and something extra like a race or regular bonus. In the meantime, I might also look for a quick kickback or two.

Mid-September update:

I now have a pretty good rakeback deal on Purple Lounge, which allows me to continue cashing in on the Microgaming fish. Continuing to play on Microgaming sites is a bit risky, since they obviously do not have adequate protection for punters. I will protect myself as much as I can by minimizing my roll on the site as much as I can. On the whole I think it's worth the risk. Just.

I also decided to do the Regalos PokerTime kickback bonus. This bonus looks very attractive, at around $200 and 200%RB equivalent. The problem is that PokerTime (previously on the Microgaming network) is now a stand-alone room - a fact I was unaware of when I signed up. They now have barely twenty tables running at any one time, all no-limit holdem, and only 3-4 at NL50 or above. I am still going to finish the kickback, as it is very easy and the players on the site are laughably bad. The biggest downside is that almost everyone on the site is short stacking - probably because they're all doing kickbacks at >100% rakeback. This site is going nowhere fast, and I am going to finish the deal and cash out as soon as humanly possible.

In other news, I have burned a whole stack of cash on Full Tilt attempting to do their "take 2" promotion. Yuk.

Dodging bullets: Eurolinx bites the dust

The following message appears on the Eurolinx website:

• MALTA – The Linx Media Group has today announced that it is seeking to put its businesses into liquidation and will cease trading with immediate effect. As yet, the Linx Media Group does not know how long this process will take, but it will provide updates on the situation as and when information becomes available and when liquidators are appointed.

This is a tragedy for the online gaming industry. Eurolinx was a popular cardroom on the Microgaming network. It had a reputation for running really good promotions and for looking after its players.

The warning signs came as early as April, when some players started reporting delays in withdrawals on 2+2.

I have played on Eurolinx for nearly a year, and did very well out of the rakeback, bonuses and a series of lucrative rake races via Rake the Rake. I noticed the 2+2 thread around the beginning of June, and was surprised as I had received a withdrawal without problems at the end of April. The thread concerned me enough to request a withdrawal of just about half my balance. After a number of emails, I eventually got my money in early July. The problems were appearing to persist, so I withdrew a further substantial part of my bankroll immedately. The latter withdrawal was received in early August after an email to RTR. It now looks like I may have been one of the last players to receive money from Eurolinx, and some of the players that were waiting since April never received their money. As it happens, I busted the few hundred dollars I had remaining on Eurolinx and so my balance at the time of liquidation was just $250 due to some rake races and rakeback. There is no doubt that I have been very fortunate to escape from this situation - at the time that I became aware of the problems I had nearly 25% of my bankroll on the site.

Some players are reporting losses in excess of $250,000. Some players had their entire bankroll on Eurolinx. Many are being put in very difficult personal situations due to this loss of money.

What lessons can be drawn from this debacle? Firstly, it is essential to diversify online money. It is a mistake to keep your entire bankroll in any one place, even Neteller or reputable sites like Pokerstars. I think I will be pulling a few $000 offline in the coming month partly to protect it, and partly to get it working earning interest.

Secondly, there are now legitimate concerns being raised about the way Microgaming is run. It is evident that Eurolinx was 'investing' player deposits on real estate and stocks, and was irreparably damaged by the financial crisis. One wonders how Microgaming is set up that its skins can be allowed to operate in this way without liquid reserves sufficient to cover player deposits. A number of Microgaming skins connected with the Tusk company collapsed last year, so there are now some serious concerns about the viability of Microgaming overall.

Running good is awesome.

Played the $5k guaranteed on Cake on Friday ($10 rebuy, 162 runners). Had another deep run, accompanied by the most incredible "run good" I have ever experienced in a tournament. At the 25/50 level I had 310 big blinds at one stage. Then, after donking off half my stack in a fit of stupidity (see the AKcc hand below) I went on an unreal winning stack, until I was chipleader with nearly three times as many chips as second place, and with 15% of the total chips with 30 odd players left. Unfortunately despite that I only managed to finish 5th for $280 rather than 1st for $1000 odd.

The finish was pretty disappointing. I lost a chunk to a preflop reshove with AQ vs QQ. I figured that he could have been stealing, but actually I should really have been playing smaller ball versus an early position raiser. After that came two just bad beats which put me out (flopped set < rivered straight and AQ < KJ AIPF). Winning either would have placed me well within shot of winning, but it wasn't to be. Bottom line is that you really need to run good for the last hour, not the middle hour.

A good live session

Played the 85+15 "deepstack" on Tuesday. I say deepstack, but when level 5 goes from 100/200 to 200/400 and level 7 goes from 300/600 to 500/1000 it gets very shallow very quickly. By the time we reached the second break, the average chipstack was down to 10 big blinds (I had a "good" stack with 16).

I had a fairly good run, and ended up splitting 10th place for a min cash. We also had a little sweetener for the bubble, so I came away with an awesome $30 profit from 5 hours of poker :-/

The final hand had the poker Gods pissing with me. I shoved 69cc (big blind special) on a JJ4cc board. JQ reshoved. Turn 2c . River 2h .

I then sat in the 10/20 limit for an hour or so because I had arranged to meet up with another player. I had a good run and came away with $330 profit. It would have been a lot more if I hadn't been busted twice (in about five hands) by runner-runner one card flushes. At least I checked behind on the river both times.

The last hand was a classic. I was UTG with 67dd. I would normally dump it, but the table was loose and passive so it wasn't a bad spot to gamble (plus it was my last hand). I limped, expecting a good chance of a 4-5 way pot since the players are so bad. Another limper, a late position raise, BB calls and we see a flop 4 ways. Flop comes down T98 rainbow, so I have the arse end of the straight. BB checks, and I check planning to checkraise. PFR bets as promised, but then the BB checkraises. I don't quite know what to make of this. He could easily have QJ, but sets and two pair are quite possible too or pair and a draw. I flat call, and everyone calls. Turn is blank, like a 2 no flush draws I think. BB leads and I just call. River is a K, BB checks (Eureka) I bet and everyone calls. MHIG and I rake a 16 big bet pot .

My line was pretty weak to be honest. I think I should be at least raising the turn to make anyone with a jack or queen pay the maximum. Still, I managed to be paid off nicely by all the missed draws anyway.

(almost) Every Hand Revealed

I played the $50k guarantee ($75 buyin) on Pacific this morning (3:30am), courtesy of a free ticket. I managed a pretty deep run, and was actually chipleader at a few points. Sadly I made a few bad errors and had a difficult run towards the end, and ended up with a min cash of $140. This was sadly a long way short of the $12.5k 1st prize that I was aiming for.

I suspect my lack of NL tournament experience showed at times, and in general I did run good in the early to middle stages. I'd be interested in some expert comments.

Here is pretty much the whole tournament laid bare. These are the key pots (all pots where I won or lost 10 or more big blinds). Starting stack was 5000, 10/20 blinds, 20 minute levels.




Individual hand comments:

35: This was the first hand of the tournament. Gotta love flopping two pair and turning a boat. The river bet was an attempt to look bluffy by overbetting the pot. It's tough to get good value so early.
JTdd: Getting busy in late position here. As you can see, the play was pretty retarded for a $75 tournament. Incredible that he can go bust with a single pair here.
54o: Another two pair. This time I am probably giving the flush draw too good a price, but I wanted to keep the pot under control with such a vulnerable hand. The donk bet on the river was a dead giveaway - I probably would have value bet significantly more if he checked to me.
TT: This is probably my limit play getting the better of me. When an overcard flops my pair, I like to raise the flop and see a cheap showdown. I think this early I should probably give the flop donk bet respect, as the players are generally pretty obvious. Dropping so much on the hand was pretty poor, but I was suspiscious of the small bets.
QTo: Getting busy on the button again, and again it works out well. I probably could have got better value out here. Turn check was an attempt to get him to lead the river, but maybe I just need to play straightforwardly and extract maximum value from his K or A.
35hh: Middle pair on the flop, plus a gutshot on the turn. I thought the combination of the turned ace and the rivered pair and flush made it a good spot to bluff, but it didn't come off. I think he folds without an ace.
J9cc: Pretty straightforward. Is there any point in value betting this river? I suspect not.
QQ: Another nice hand. Should I bet the turn? I figured the pot was big enough to get a decent value bet in on the river anyway.
TT: A monster hand, which basically set up my run. It's a cooler for AA, but A2dd got what he deserved.
KQdd: A bit cheeky to fire the second barrel here, but it worked out ok. I shutdown if he calls, obviously.
JJ: Always getting it in versus the shortstack here, and run good enough to river my two outer.
J6dd: Just got drawn into this hand, and hit the wrong outs on the river. I don't really think I could have played it differently.
A8o: Weird hand. Scary board, but the minbets on flop and turn made it pretty clear that he had nothing. I might have folded a bigger river bet, gutshot being the only real possibility for a good hand.
TT: A lot of limping on this table. I liked to punish this tendency from late position. Villain was short, so race was inevitable.
JQss: I should explain that asbo was the megafish on this table. He open limped any two cards, and liked to donk any flop and often followed up on the turn and/or river. But he often folded when put under pressure. After the turn raise, I have to credit him for a hand, and just call for my double belly outs.
AJcc: Overcards plus flushdraw I figure good enough for this allin checkraise. My equity was certainly enough unless he has a set or big pair. I saw a lot of light calls during this tournament.
KQo: Did I mention that asbo was retarded? He claimed this was a bluff gone wrong, but that does not explain his final call on the river. He copped a lot of shit from the table after this.
AQdd: Huge, huge hand. Flop and turn were obviously semibluffs. The river 2.5x pot bluff was just completely inexplicable. I just couldn't put him on the backdoor flush, and surely sets would have done something smaller sooner? Whatever, it was a big call and put me into the tournament chiplead. The guy gave me shit about it for ages, basically calling me a fish for calling his retarded bluff, but whatever.
AQo: Did I mention that asbo was retarded? Yeah, I guess I did. I'll isoraise him all day, and float his inevitable donk bets liberally. Amazingly, he was still building a big stack by pushing the rest of the table around with these obvious and repeated bluffs.
A7o: Isoraising the fish again (the rest of the table were pretty weak, notably the BB here). My top pair is good 90% of the time here. Turn raise, because my kicker problem went away. Unfortunately it came back on the river. Cest la vie.
AQcc: Muppet from previous hand. Shortstack shove is quite likely to be air, but if not my pair outs ought to be good.
JQo: Detecting a pattern here? I like this button raise, especially when it folds out the other limper and leaves me with asbo once again. I had seen this river bluff so often, this was an instacall. After this hand, I hit my peak of 80k in chips which put me comfortably chipleader, with maybe 150 players left.
88: To be honest, I should find a fold here after the limp-reraise from the very tight player. But I figured he might have AK often enough that it was worth calling the short shove.
AJcc: Should probably fold the flop checkraise here. This guy hadn't got too out of line. Turn bet was obviously too big to go fishing for a flush. But part of me still thought that he had air and was just making a play against my presumed blind steal.

After that hand, there was a hell of a long time where I picked up nothing. Very little preflop, and nothing at all to play beyond the flop. Few opportunities to steal (or none). Worse however, I was moved tables leaving my megafish and assorted weak tighties behind.

KQdd: Preflop is fine. On the flop I just need to fold with the guy behind me. Raising was asking for trouble, and I got it. Shut down once he called my raise.
72o: Nice hand to bust out on eh? Flopping top pair is all very nice, but I probably shouldn't push it with four players seeing the flop. The raise is questionable to say the least. Once AAMERICK shoved over the top, I recalled the KQdd hand and figured he could be making a play recalling the same hand. The bet size certainly looked like it didn't want to see a call. Daft way to play a set, but perhaps an even dafter way to play 72o. Note in my defence: I had been playing for over five hours by this stage, having woken at 3:30am to play.

It's notable that I went from 200/400 to 800/1600 (6 levels) winning only one hand of note. So if my early tournament was a heater (you bet), then my late tournament was probably a cooler.

A punch in the guts

45 minutes, $400 down the toilet. It happened so fast I want to punch someone.

Here are the highlights from one table:

Reevaluating opening range

Looking at the stats for my last post made me have a little think about whether I am playing a little too laggy, so I thought I would go back to basics and have a look at my opening ranges.

To keep things simple, I am looking at 6max fixed limit games from 1/2 up. Initially, I am simply looking at my opening range UTG or UTG+1. This opening range more or less calibrates my range in other positions and with other action (limpers, raises in front etc).

Using Holdem Manager's filters, I selected for these conditions and came up with about 11000 hands which is not a bad sample (about 100 of each offsuit hand, 30 of each suited and 50 of each pair). Then I can see what I normally do with each hand in these positions, and what the average result is.

My current opening range is something along these lines: 22+, A7o+, A5s+, K9o+, K7s+, QTs+, QJo, suited connectors down to 87. Sometimes I also play the other suited aces, QTo, Q9s, J9s and a few other marginal hands.

This is a fair bit laggier than the Stox recommendation, which is roughly: 55+, A7s+, A9o+, K9s+, KQo, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s.

Looking at my database, I discovered the following interesting facts:

• All the pocket pairs are profitable
  
• Almost all the suited aces are profitable, except A2s.
• Suited kings are profitable down to K9 (with the exception of an unusually bad KQ). Lower kings are marginal but not bad.
• Suited connectors and 1 gappers are basically marginal all the way down. Everything else is not worth worrying about.
  
• A8o and lower are pretty clearly unprofitable.
• KTo is one of my most profitable unsuited hands (weird, must be an outlier I guess). KJo and KQo are also pretty solid winners.
• All the other unsuited hands are marginal at best. QJ is maybe the only one that is playable.

The conclusion I draw from this is that it is pretty clear that I need to tighten up all around, except for perhaps loosening the small suited aces.

The opening range I come up with is this:

33+, A2s+, ATo+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+, QJo, JTs.

If I'm at a tight table I can add the following: 22, A8o+, K5s+, K9o, Q9s, QTo, suited connectors and gappers down to 54 and 64. But in general all these hands will do nothing except for increase variance.

Note that this analysis is based on my stats, which means it is heavily influenced by the way I have played these hands postflop. Obviously, the better you play postflop, the more hands you can play pre. I suspect I don't play all that well out of position, hence the need to tighten up in these early spots.