Points for me to note:
- My aggression is too low. PFR/VPIP is around 0.54, and it seems clear that higher aggression is more profitable. If the given tables are to be believed, then one really wants to aim for the 0.7-0.85 range.
- I don't play positionally enough - I need to raise more in late position, and probably tighten up in early position.
- My blind stealing % looks pretty good, and the profit from blind stealing situations is absolutely incredible - around 75-85 big blinds per 100 on the cutoff and button, and even 10 blinds/100 in the SB position.
- Blind defence looks ok, but could probably be improved.
- Heads up on the flop with no PFR is a red flag. I think I have actually stopped open limping in 6 max games, but if ever I needed proof it's here. I am losing money in nearly all positions when I limp open and end up heads up with the big blind.
- I do ok in multiway pots, but interestingly I am losing significant money on the button when there is no PFR. The fascinating thing here is that relatively decent hands are just as unprofitable as bad hands. Even the classic hands that *should* play well in this situation don't - the small pairs and suited connectors. The answer is probably that I am playing these hands with too few players in the pot. I clearly need to raise more and fold more in this situation.
- Suited connectors and small pocket pairs are a problem. Another red flag is don't cold call a raise in the big blind with suited connectors (or any other position really).
Anyway that was a remarkably interesting analysis, albeit fairly superficial at this stage. It's certainly given me some things to think about.
Holdem manager is proving to be a profoundly valuable tool. If you haven't got it, or something like it - get it.
Edit: Right after posting that, and feeling confident I promptly pissed away 40BB in fairly quick time. Marvelous.
2 comments:
good little analysis there mate. interesting about the pfr/vpip ... i run at around a 28-29% vpip and 20% pfr which is not far off that range.
I think blind defence becomes more important as you play higher stakes. At low stakes I suspect its a little less relevant due to higher rake structure and generally less aggressive opponents making marginal defence hands losing plays.
I dont think i ever open limp these days, although do overlimp with those speculative hands. interesting to see that your stats actually show that open limping is not a good idea.
your button stats must be just variance i think .. no way should you be losing there in any statistic .. well except maybe if you cold call raises ...
your suited connectors and small pockets are interesting though. I think your assessment is probably right - too few players. or maybe you're overplaying draws or when your small pockets miss? I might have to have a closer look at this stat myself as I suspect I overplay some of these. I think i'd still cold call a raise in the big blind with SCs say 45s and above if there is at least one other cold caller. 2 cold callers and any 2 suited is good enough for me to have a look. I should check how i'm going with that though ...
Maybe it's variance - it's only 500 hands or so. Nevertheless, it's still something I want to look at more closely.
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