Friday, November 28, 2008

A little no-limit, I think to myself

I decided to check out the full ring no-limit tables on Tilt.

Bought in for $50 on a couple of tables (both 0.5/1). I played ok, and the tables were fishy enough. One table got up to $140 or so, when my AA got taken down by a rivered two pair. Built back up to $100, and then disaster struck.

In three consecutive hands, I picked up JJ. First two, no problems. Third one, disaster:

I should explain that the villain here is a big fat fish. I saw him donk off $200 in an earlier hand with his QQ with the board showing JT792 - the other guy flopped a straight and bet all the way to the river. In general, he was playing an awful lot of hands (his PFR is about 13). The river is obviously a gagging call, but I think the pot got too big for me to be able to fold. Should I have raised more on the flop or turn (I don't suppose it matters with him holding a huge draw lihe that)?


TiocfaidhArLa said...

A very interesting hand that I'd recommend putting on 2+2, I'd like to follow the link if you do.

For me flop bet size was fine, river call you were never winning this hand so that's a lot of Limit BBs in one spot which is the key to NLH. Your stack is always at risk.

The Turn is the dubious one for me. Most likely you are "way ahead, way behind". Reread that section of Harrington Cash and let me know what you think.

My tuppence worth is that you can pot control check the Turn. Pricing out the flush draw commits you.

The joys of NLH. Stick with it, your other hands show that you clearly have the skills required to win at these levels. Just be a little more wary of those river calls.

I'm not a stats analyst, but FRTB must vary greatly between winning Limit and NLH players, I suspect.

Please post on 2+2 and let us know.

The blindman said...

If I'm way behind on the turn, it's only to a bigger pair. I'll post on 2+2 and see what they say.

My thought in hindsight is that I am ahead of most of the villain's range, and there are a huge number of ways for him to outdraw me that a turn shove might be the way to go.

TiocfaidhArLa said...

Agreed, my mistake. I'll be interested to see what 2+2 recommends on the Turn.

The blindman said...

2+2 thread

TiocfaidhArLa said...

Nice detailed post on 2+2 which solicited fairly consistent responses.

I recall in the Law School Graduates blog (worth finding the period where he moves from Limit to NLH) where he comments that moving up in limits the LAGs and TAGs got LAGgier and TAGgier. This is very true.

The stakes that you jumped in to NL are fairly high when transitioning. That's fine because you are well able for it.

I'd suggest considering becoming a little TAGgier initially.

On that note, I have heard that at higher stakes hand ranges can become more polarised. This is probably the same phenomenon.

It is a really interesting spot, thanks for posting it.

PS If the preflop raise "should have been" bigger, you made 3 mistakes and got away with two :-). The joys of incomplete information.

PPS I think NLH is the game that can challenge you more and as the chips flow to the better players quicker can provide you with bigger profits in the medium term. Please stick with it.

The blindman said...

I am actually disappointed by the lack of an articulate response on 2+2. Replies like "lol minraiseaments" and "bet 40-50" are not useful without some reasoning.

The one good point was by the first responder, who noted that a higher pair is unlikely due to the lack of a 4-bet preflop after a third player entered the pot. TT is just about the only hand I am trailing here.

I accept that the $8 3-bet was on the small side and not conventional, but I think it is at worst a pretty marginal mistake. The main objective here is to stop hands like KQ and AQ from entering after me, and $8 ought to do that much. It is a lot harder to come up with a sound argument on preflop betting as opposed to after the flop.

The flop bet was probably a little too small, but it is pretty hard to get rid of the drawing hands here with any bet.

I think there is a strong case for a turn shove (which nobody on 2+2 has yet suggested). The villain has odds to call a pot sized bet with an overcard flush draw, and in that case I am committed for the rest anyway - it's better to get them in when I am (almost) certainly in the lead.