Unfortunately, it looks as though my ambitions of playing the in the main event of the Aussie Millions will have to wait for another year.
The final satellite today was for eigth $12k packages plus $4k for ninth, with 100 runners. I played pretty well and saw some decent cards, but sadly busted out in 33rd. I'm not too disappointed - that's my fifth live tournament, and I have placed in the top half every time.
I started out with a rush in the first hour - the deck smacked me in the face for a little while. I started out by making 2k or so (starting stacks were 5k) with a top straight vs a 2nd straight (but with 3 diamonds on board). Shortly after that, I had K9dd (maybe overlimped or maybe in the BB). Flop came K98 and I led for half the pot. Big stack on my right raised and I called. Turn was a K, and he check/called a big bet from me. River 8, and I bet the pot for nearly all my chips. He called and mucked with an obscenity after I tabled - I guess he had the case king.
I got a bit lucky when the short stack pushed all-in and I called with AT in the BB. He showed AK, but I hit the ten to put him out. Coincidentally, this was the same guy I busted on the bubble with aces in the qualifier - and once again he took it like a complete gentleman. After this I was probably up to about 13-14k in chips, and still only in the 2nd level (50/100).
Our table was the first to break, sadly and I had to move. On the new table, I turned up a nice looking pair of black kings. MP who had been busy in a number of pots (and was quite short) raised, I reraised and he shoved. I called instantly, and was dismayed to see aces which held up. This put me down to about 11k.
After that, the deck went a bit dry on me. I had a couple of steals/Cbets snapped off, and struggled for a while with 6-7k chips. Our table broke again, which was probably no bad thing for me.
At the new table I raised the first hand in with something like A9 on the button. As the blinds crept up to ludicrous levels (400/800, 500/1000 with the average stack only 12k or so), I found myself able to steal blinds fairly often despite getting snapped off a couple of times. From a low of 6k, I shoved with TT to pick up about 3k, and won blinds and the odd limp with hands like AQ, 66, A3 on the button.
With 35 players left and blinds at 500/1000, I was actually sitting reasonably solidly with around 15k in chips. Then the blinds came around a couple of times with no stealing opportunities. It folded to me in the SB holding J9. I raised of course, but the BB shoves back at me forcing a fold. He was a nice bloke who played pretty tight in the blinds and I have little doubt that he had the goods (QQ he claimed). I now had only 8.5k, and a few hands later I pick up AQ. MP limped, as he had done rather frequently. I raised to 4k, and it folded back to MP who shoved. With only 4.5k more, I called. He showed KQ, but unfortunately hit his three outer to bust me out in 33rd. Maybe I should have shoved the AQ, but on the whole you cant be too unhappy about being all-in as a 3-1 favourite.
I'm not really disappointed at all. I played pretty well, and got pretty close to the action end of the tournament. I got unlucky a couple of times in the middle, but overall saw my fair share of good cards. One thing I noticed was how fast the blinds seemed to rise: after only about three and a half hours, the BB was up to around 1/15th of the average stack. It makes playing real poker rather difficult.
One little side-note: The tourney took place in Burswood's new poker room, which is quite nice and thankfully isolated from the infernal slot machines. The aircon was stuffed though, so it was a bit of a furnace. After about three hours of play I was ravenous, having had too light a lunch. I took the opportunity to grab a Danish in the ten minute break, but the slow service at the bar meant play had already resumed by the time I got back with Danish in hand. At this point, I discovered that they have a very strange no food rule in the poker room. Do they really expect people to survive for six hours of poker with no opportunity for nourishment? Anyway my Danish was banished to the bottom of the drinks table, so I ordered a Banana smoothie from the drinks waiter. The concoction that arrived was this ridiculous thing topped with whipped cream and chocolate sauce. I ate the cream with the supplied spoon while exchanging glances with the tournament director (and carefully not touching my Danish).
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Woohoo! Qualified for the WBCOOP final!
Finished 48/~400 in the PLO split. Not a bad effort, considering I was playing distracted (i.e working) most of the time, and missed maybe 30% of the hands. I started in my lunch hour and bumbled along happily at a very weak tight table. I stole a lot of pots PF and on the flop, and also made a few good showdown hands.
I actually was very well placed with about 50 places left (got up to $45k chips), and lost a couple of huge hands to go out. Was very close to grabbing a step 2 ticket on top of the final ticket.
I actually was very well placed with about 50 places left (got up to $45k chips), and lost a couple of huge hands to go out. Was very close to grabbing a step 2 ticket on top of the final ticket.
Perhaps this is part of my problem?
No sooner have I sworn to step down in stakes until I get my mojo back, I suddenly find myself sitting at a 3/6 Euro table. I logged into Eurolinx, which has now dumped all dollar tables in favour of Euro only (or rather Microgaming has). There being no 1/2 or 2/4 tables running, I had a look at the 3/6, and found several juicy looking fish. I couldn't resist, and sat down with my last $100.
The series of hands below illustrate rather well why it is a bad thing to play above where you are feeling comfortable. Over about 35 hands, I went up 30, down 50, until finally on that last hand, I was all-in before winning a nail biter to recover my original EUR80. Heart in mouth, I stood up immediately.
Not entirely happy with my play. A couple of those I think I should have folded before showdown (perhaps a bet-fold on the turn instead of check-call check-call).
Incidentally, I am astonished at Micro's decision to cut the dollar tables. It seems to have cut traffic already. Euro tables result in more rake, as the cap is EUR3 instead of $3. You also accumulate points and raked hands slower, because the rates of accumulation are currency independent. All in all, it stinks pretty bad. I quite like Eurolinx, but if the dollar tables don't come back, my days there are probably numbered.
A corker to cap it off on Stars:
The series of hands below illustrate rather well why it is a bad thing to play above where you are feeling comfortable. Over about 35 hands, I went up 30, down 50, until finally on that last hand, I was all-in before winning a nail biter to recover my original EUR80. Heart in mouth, I stood up immediately.
Not entirely happy with my play. A couple of those I think I should have folded before showdown (perhaps a bet-fold on the turn instead of check-call check-call).
Incidentally, I am astonished at Micro's decision to cut the dollar tables. It seems to have cut traffic already. Euro tables result in more rake, as the cap is EUR3 instead of $3. You also accumulate points and raked hands slower, because the rates of accumulation are currency independent. All in all, it stinks pretty bad. I quite like Eurolinx, but if the dollar tables don't come back, my days there are probably numbered.
A corker to cap it off on Stars:
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Downer
I am in the middle of the biggest downswing of my short career. In November and December I have lost a pretty obscene amount for the stakes I play - probably going on for 300 big bets or so. It has completely destroyed my previously good position at 2/4 stakes.
I'm not sure what to make of it. I suspect I am getting a little bit lazy, a little bit undisciplined, but I have also taken some horrific beats recently. I think I will need to take stock a little, and hop back down to mainly 1/2 for a while until I get my mojo back. I'll allow exceptions for chasing very good value bonuses, but that's it.
Longer term, I have some rethinking to do. Maybe shorthanded limit just isn't the right game for me. Even the best players have pretty thin win rates and high variance. Perhaps I will bite the bullet and jump into NL full-time. I can buy a Stox subscription with my Eurolinx points, so I may also look at that and see if I can find some inspiration.
My most recent move was to take a Eurolinx reload, which is excellent value when added to the rakeback and RakeTheRake rake races. Unfortunately I blew the whole deposit in one sitting, leaving me to wonder whether I can complete the bonus at all.
I'm not sure what to make of it. I suspect I am getting a little bit lazy, a little bit undisciplined, but I have also taken some horrific beats recently. I think I will need to take stock a little, and hop back down to mainly 1/2 for a while until I get my mojo back. I'll allow exceptions for chasing very good value bonuses, but that's it.
Longer term, I have some rethinking to do. Maybe shorthanded limit just isn't the right game for me. Even the best players have pretty thin win rates and high variance. Perhaps I will bite the bullet and jump into NL full-time. I can buy a Stox subscription with my Eurolinx points, so I may also look at that and see if I can find some inspiration.
My most recent move was to take a Eurolinx reload, which is excellent value when added to the rakeback and RakeTheRake rake races. Unfortunately I blew the whole deposit in one sitting, leaving me to wonder whether I can complete the bonus at all.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
No-limit strategy note: bet sizing
Most poker players have a pretty good understanding of pot odds and outs, and therefore are often able to make a correct decision when deciding whether to call with a drawing hand. My suspicion is that many players do not have as good an understanding of how to correctly size their bets when they are in front - or if they do follow a "pot" or "2/3 pot" rule of thumb, they do not understand *why* it is correct.
I want to discuss briefly how we can judge whether a bet size is correct or not. Let's take a very simple example:
You hold Ah Ks, and the board reads 5h Kh As 2d. There is $100 in the pot, and there is one player left who called your preflop and flop bets. Both players have $200 behind. Let's first ask the question of what your equity is in this pot. To simplify the situation, we will remove implied odds and fold equity from the equation and say that both hands are face up on the table. Your opponent is drawing to a flush (as you strongly suspected) with Th 9h.
You might think that calculating your equity is a simple matter of working out how many cards do not make a flush for your opponent (36 out of 44) abd taking that proportion of the pot (or about $82). That is not correct - your pot equity on the turn is $100, for the simple reason that your opponent should not see a river card. There is a betting round remaining, and you will bet a suitable amount to ensure that your opponent does not have the odds to call. If your opponent calls without proper odds, your equity in the pot will actually increase.
So how much should you bet? In this situation, a bet of more than 8/36 (the ratio of his outs to non-outs or $23 in this case) will ensure that he does not have odds to call. In practice, you would probably wish to bet a fair amount more than this for a few reasons:
In reality, we don't have the time to make very precise calculations about odds and equity so we use "rules of thumb" when we think our opponent is drawing. What is so special about a pot-size bet? A pot size bet offers your opponent pot odds of 2:1 on a call. This in conveniently close to the outs calculation for a big draw with a single card to come like FD+OESD (15 outs), FD+overcards (15 outs if the overcards are clean), FD+small pair (usually 14 outs). Therefore when you bet the pot on the turn, you ensure that only the biggest draw has a marginal call.
Betting on the flop is a bit more complicated due to the fact that there are two cards to come. In general as long as you price out the small draws they will have difficulty in calling given that they face another big bet on the turn if they want to see the river. Betting on the flop, you should not worry too much about the big draws because it is almost impossible to propoerly price them out. For example, a FD+OESD has 15 outs and two chances to hit - which adds up to a 55% raw equity assuming they can see both remaining cards. In other words, a big draw will probably shove the flop irrespective of your bet size.
On the basis of these thoughts, I would regard a bet of 2/3 to 3/4 pot as appropriate if you are not pot committed and the draw is clear. If you feel pot committed due to your hand strength or stack size, then a pot size bet should be the minimum.
This is a fairly simplified analysis which does not consider fold equity or multiple opponents, but I hope it explains my thinking on bet sizes. I'd appreciate any thoughts.
I want to discuss briefly how we can judge whether a bet size is correct or not. Let's take a very simple example:
You hold Ah Ks, and the board reads 5h Kh As 2d. There is $100 in the pot, and there is one player left who called your preflop and flop bets. Both players have $200 behind. Let's first ask the question of what your equity is in this pot. To simplify the situation, we will remove implied odds and fold equity from the equation and say that both hands are face up on the table. Your opponent is drawing to a flush (as you strongly suspected) with Th 9h.
You might think that calculating your equity is a simple matter of working out how many cards do not make a flush for your opponent (36 out of 44) abd taking that proportion of the pot (or about $82). That is not correct - your pot equity on the turn is $100, for the simple reason that your opponent should not see a river card. There is a betting round remaining, and you will bet a suitable amount to ensure that your opponent does not have the odds to call. If your opponent calls without proper odds, your equity in the pot will actually increase.
So how much should you bet? In this situation, a bet of more than 8/36 (the ratio of his outs to non-outs or $23 in this case) will ensure that he does not have odds to call. In practice, you would probably wish to bet a fair amount more than this for a few reasons:
- He may have more outs than you think, such as a gutshot+FD
- You want to gain a significant amount if he calls poorly - you should make the biggest bet that you think he will call with bad odds.
In reality, we don't have the time to make very precise calculations about odds and equity so we use "rules of thumb" when we think our opponent is drawing. What is so special about a pot-size bet? A pot size bet offers your opponent pot odds of 2:1 on a call. This in conveniently close to the outs calculation for a big draw with a single card to come like FD+OESD (15 outs), FD+overcards (15 outs if the overcards are clean), FD+small pair (usually 14 outs). Therefore when you bet the pot on the turn, you ensure that only the biggest draw has a marginal call.
Betting on the flop is a bit more complicated due to the fact that there are two cards to come. In general as long as you price out the small draws they will have difficulty in calling given that they face another big bet on the turn if they want to see the river. Betting on the flop, you should not worry too much about the big draws because it is almost impossible to propoerly price them out. For example, a FD+OESD has 15 outs and two chances to hit - which adds up to a 55% raw equity assuming they can see both remaining cards. In other words, a big draw will probably shove the flop irrespective of your bet size.
On the basis of these thoughts, I would regard a bet of 2/3 to 3/4 pot as appropriate if you are not pot committed and the draw is clear. If you feel pot committed due to your hand strength or stack size, then a pot size bet should be the minimum.
This is a fairly simplified analysis which does not consider fold equity or multiple opponents, but I hope it explains my thinking on bet sizes. I'd appreciate any thoughts.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Dances with aces: a step towards the Aussie Millions
There was a little satellite running tonight at the local casino: $125 buyin, top 10 (out of 100) win a place in a $1100 buyin final (also 100 players). Prizes in the final will be $12,000 packages to the Aussie Millions $10,500 Main Event.
I went down for the first time without Sidekick. Started slow - picked up a few small pots uncontested with hands like AK and AJ. Got to first break after an hour with about my starting chips (3k). Kept treading water and made it to second break with around an average chip stack (which by this time was probably around 5k).
Sometime after the second break, I got an interesting hand of 75hh in the BB. Four players see a flop of Ah8s6h with two hearts. Check around to my right, who bets about 2/3 pot. I shove, having him only just covered - I figure to be leading almost any hand except for a pair of 8s with a better FD, and I don't want to have to make a tougher decision on the turn. Another player hollywoods and folds a 97 (supposedly). Original raiser calls with AQ. Fortunately a heart arrives on the river, and I nearly double up. The very next hand, I pickup AKss and a small stack shoves into me. I reshove to get heads up and he shows QJ. Neither of us improve, and suddenly I'm sitting table leader with maybe 35 players left or so.
After that, I sat tight with a pretty cold deck. Bad preflop cards at least makes the decisions easy. I was moved to another table for about a round, before that table was broken up, and I ended back in the exact same seat I left. Only now there are 30 players left and nearly everybody is short.
I picked up a couple of raising hands (AK, AJss), and took down some blinds (now 700/1400 with my stack sitting around the 15k mark). Also got a couple of big blind walks which helped a little. The trouble is that a lot of this play from 30 down is short handed, meaning that the blinds come very fast and it is sometimes necessary to play sub-premium hands.
Anyway, I keep playing tight and make it to the third break with 20 players left. Blinds go up to 1000/2000, and a few small stacks go out. But I am really short stacked now (maybe 13000) after an attempted steal gets snapped off by a shortie holding trips on the flop. With around 14 players left, I get 88 UTG. After some thought I fold reluctantly, preferring a better spot. I was very thankful for that fold, since the BB turns over aces busting out another shortie (Dances with Aces #1).
We get down to 12 to go, and I am still short (feeling like I need to find a hand to steal a round of blinds with). I find ATdd, and shove from MP and get called after a bit of Hollywood by "the Geezer" in the BB. He turns over A9cc, and I breathe a little. Flop comes 873, turn 9 (ack!!) and a river J to save my behind. A few hands later, and with a few chips to play with I turn over JJ UTG. I raise to 6k with 20k behind. MP shoves, and at some point a player on the other table busts out (we are playing hand for hand at this stage on two tables to get down to 10). It turns out that MP matches my stack exactly, so a call from me would end the tournament right there. I Hollywood for a while and fold face up, figuring that I'm flipping at best but very likely behind. MP shows his AA, and I get lots of 'great fold' calls from around the table. I actually thought it was a pretty easy fold in the circumstances (Dances with Aces #2).
It plays tight for a little while longer when a short stack on our table shoves from MP. I look down at shiny aces, and stick my chips in with an apology. I have very little behind, but nobody is so short that I can afford to fold aces PF. MP shows QJ, doesn't improve and we're going to round two baby (Dances #3)! The table thought it was karma for my JJ fold.
I went down for the first time without Sidekick. Started slow - picked up a few small pots uncontested with hands like AK and AJ. Got to first break after an hour with about my starting chips (3k). Kept treading water and made it to second break with around an average chip stack (which by this time was probably around 5k).
Sometime after the second break, I got an interesting hand of 75hh in the BB. Four players see a flop of Ah8s6h with two hearts. Check around to my right, who bets about 2/3 pot. I shove, having him only just covered - I figure to be leading almost any hand except for a pair of 8s with a better FD, and I don't want to have to make a tougher decision on the turn. Another player hollywoods and folds a 97 (supposedly). Original raiser calls with AQ. Fortunately a heart arrives on the river, and I nearly double up. The very next hand, I pickup AKss and a small stack shoves into me. I reshove to get heads up and he shows QJ. Neither of us improve, and suddenly I'm sitting table leader with maybe 35 players left or so.
After that, I sat tight with a pretty cold deck. Bad preflop cards at least makes the decisions easy. I was moved to another table for about a round, before that table was broken up, and I ended back in the exact same seat I left. Only now there are 30 players left and nearly everybody is short.
I picked up a couple of raising hands (AK, AJss), and took down some blinds (now 700/1400 with my stack sitting around the 15k mark). Also got a couple of big blind walks which helped a little. The trouble is that a lot of this play from 30 down is short handed, meaning that the blinds come very fast and it is sometimes necessary to play sub-premium hands.
Anyway, I keep playing tight and make it to the third break with 20 players left. Blinds go up to 1000/2000, and a few small stacks go out. But I am really short stacked now (maybe 13000) after an attempted steal gets snapped off by a shortie holding trips on the flop. With around 14 players left, I get 88 UTG. After some thought I fold reluctantly, preferring a better spot. I was very thankful for that fold, since the BB turns over aces busting out another shortie (Dances with Aces #1).
We get down to 12 to go, and I am still short (feeling like I need to find a hand to steal a round of blinds with). I find ATdd, and shove from MP and get called after a bit of Hollywood by "the Geezer" in the BB. He turns over A9cc, and I breathe a little. Flop comes 873, turn 9 (ack!!) and a river J to save my behind. A few hands later, and with a few chips to play with I turn over JJ UTG. I raise to 6k with 20k behind. MP shoves, and at some point a player on the other table busts out (we are playing hand for hand at this stage on two tables to get down to 10). It turns out that MP matches my stack exactly, so a call from me would end the tournament right there. I Hollywood for a while and fold face up, figuring that I'm flipping at best but very likely behind. MP shows his AA, and I get lots of 'great fold' calls from around the table. I actually thought it was a pretty easy fold in the circumstances (Dances with Aces #2).
It plays tight for a little while longer when a short stack on our table shoves from MP. I look down at shiny aces, and stick my chips in with an apology. I have very little behind, but nobody is so short that I can afford to fold aces PF. MP shows QJ, doesn't improve and we're going to round two baby (Dances #3)! The table thought it was karma for my JJ fold.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Mornings suck..
I don't know why, but I always run bad in the mornings. I also seem to have this propensity recently of following a small heater with a bigger cooler.
I played a couple of 2/4 tables on Eurolinx this morning and got dumped for about 50BB in the space of about half an hour. It was a massacre: AA cracked by trips, top and third pair cracked by top two, top pair stuffed by turned two pair or turned trips. WTSD 46, W$SD 22. The one mitigating factor is that I will get $25 back for the aces cracked hand due to Eurolinx' "aces never lose" promotion.
This month is *not* going well.
I played a couple of 2/4 tables on Eurolinx this morning and got dumped for about 50BB in the space of about half an hour. It was a massacre: AA cracked by trips, top and third pair cracked by top two, top pair stuffed by turned two pair or turned trips. WTSD 46, W$SD 22. The one mitigating factor is that I will get $25 back for the aces cracked hand due to Eurolinx' "aces never lose" promotion.
This month is *not* going well.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
