Plugging leaks

Holdem Manager has a few links to interesting articles on how to use HM to plug your leaks. I've just been working through one entitled "Plugging Leaks - The Basics", which is based on this 2+2 article (originally for Poker Tracker). The results are rather fascinating.

Points for me to note:

• My aggression is too low. PFR/VPIP is around 0.54, and it seems clear that higher aggression is more profitable. If the given tables are to be believed, then one really wants to aim for the 0.7-0.85 range.
• I don't play positionally enough - I need to raise more in late position, and probably tighten up in early position.
• My blind stealing % looks pretty good, and the profit from blind stealing situations is absolutely incredible - around 75-85 big blinds per 100 on the cutoff and button, and even 10 blinds/100 in the SB position.
• Blind defence looks ok, but could probably be improved.
• Heads up on the flop with no PFR is a red flag. I think I have actually stopped open limping in 6 max games, but if ever I needed proof it's here. I am losing money in nearly all positions when I limp open and end up heads up with the big blind.
• I do ok in multiway pots, but interestingly I am losing significant money on the button when there is no PFR. The fascinating thing here is that relatively decent hands are just as unprofitable as bad hands. Even the classic hands that *should* play well in this situation don't - the small pairs and suited connectors. The answer is probably that I am playing these hands with too few players in the pot. I clearly need to raise more and fold more in this situation.
• Suited connectors and small pocket pairs are a problem. Another red flag is don't cold call a raise in the big blind with suited connectors (or any other position really).

Anyway that was a remarkably interesting analysis, albeit fairly superficial at this stage. It's certainly given me some things to think about.

Holdem manager is proving to be a profoundly valuable tool. If you haven't got it, or something like it - get it.

Edit: Right after posting that, and feeling confident I promptly pissed away 40BB in fairly quick time. Marvelous.

Not as good as I think I am?!

I have collected most of the hand histories I can find for importing into Holdem Manager, and had a look at my stats. It makes for interesting reading. I am currently running at 8.5BB/100 (thats big bets not blinds) at 2/4 (over about 2000 hands), which is some heater. The majority of my hands (about 8000) are at 1/2, where I am running about -2BB/100. I am also slightly down (-0.5) at 0.5/1 and up on smaller stakes (about 3-4BB/100). Overall, it puts me at around 0.5BB/100. In dollar terms, it's much better than that, since my best results are at 2/4.

What do I make of all this?

• Firstly, I have long been aware that I make much more at the moment through bonuses than through play.
  
• Second, it is worth pointing out that even when I am losing I am probably beating the players but not the rake (which can cost anything from 2-3BB/100 at these low limits).
• The sample sizes are very small (and do not cover anywhere near all of my play), so maybe I can't say anything very concrete about the results.
  
• While the 2/4 results are pretty hot, the 1/2 results definitely including some nasty downswings, especially at OnGame and iPoker. I am sure that the 2/4 average will come down, and the 1/2 will go up if I keep playing.
  
• I *seem* to be playing better at higher limits than lower, which may say something about my (slightly laggy) style of play. The higher limits have also been more recent, so perhaps I am just improving.

The last few days I have been playing at Eurolinx (microgaming via RTR), which is working out well. I am well up in play, and I am half way to completing a $100 bonus, have accumulated plenty of rakeback, and have a shot at $100 or so in the rake race that finishes at the end of the month.

It is also worth noting that now feel completely comfortable at 2/4 (up to about 3 tables), and that it is very nice to be able to report that the good results are not restricted to Pacific. This is a significant milestone, since 2/4 feels like a transition from the microstakes to "proper" small stakes such as 3/6 4/8 and 5/10, where signifcant profits can start to be made.

A good run, and finished the Captain Cook bonus

I've been on a good heater the last few days. I finished the Captain Cook bonus ($220 all up), and improved the balance there by a further $150 in the process (still slightly down on play but much better than it was). I'm up on William Hill on top of the $50 bonus, and I'm up $50 on Betsson having completed the 100 points for a free Poker Office license.

All up, I reckon that takes my balance up over $1500 for the first time.

I have been trying out Holdem Manager for tracking and HUD the last few days. It looks very, very good so far. I like PokerTracker3, but it is extraordinarily frustrating waiting for them to add the poker rooms (including Microgaming and Cryptologic) that they have been promising for more than 6 months. PokerOffice (for which I should have a free license via Betsson) is also pretty good, and comprehensive in it's coverage but seems to have an unusual selection of stats by default and doesn't look as comprehensive as PT or HM. PokerOffice gives you outs and pot odds on the current hand on top of the normal HUD stats, but I don't find that particularly useful. The other reason I prefer HM and PT is that they use Postgresql, meaning you can store your database on the network and if you have multiple clients they can all share the same database.

August Summary

August balance: $1050
July balance: $710
Profit: $340

Bonuses: Party: $100, Gnuf/PSO: $120, UB/PSO: $135, WillHill $50.
Rakeback: WillHill/RaketheRake: $15
Play: ($80)

In the end, a disappointing result. Mid-month, I was running hot at William Hill and Party and by the end I had pissed it all away. Bottom line is I'm running like a dog on Microgaming. Once I'm finished that Captain Cook bonus (which is only 200 raked hands away), I'm going to steer clear except for the juiciest bonuses.

I have also bought into Betsson in order to qualify a free license for Poker Office (easy at 100 points). I am testing Poker Office, Poker Tracker and Holdem Manager. HM actually looks very good once I get the HUD working. PT3 is very nice, but development has stalled for the last six months, and it still doesn't support half the sites that PT2 does. PO has a slightly funny set of statistics, and seems a bit flaky under Vista.