Sunday, October 19, 2008

Not as good as I think I am?!

I have collected most of the hand histories I can find for importing into Holdem Manager, and had a look at my stats. It makes for interesting reading. I am currently running at 8.5BB/100 (thats big bets not blinds) at 2/4 (over about 2000 hands), which is some heater. The majority of my hands (about 8000) are at 1/2, where I am running about -2BB/100. I am also slightly down (-0.5) at 0.5/1 and up on smaller stakes (about 3-4BB/100). Overall, it puts me at around 0.5BB/100. In dollar terms, it's much better than that, since my best results are at 2/4.

What do I make of all this?
  • Firstly, I have long been aware that I make much more at the moment through bonuses than through play.
  • Second, it is worth pointing out that even when I am losing I am probably beating the players but not the rake (which can cost anything from 2-3BB/100 at these low limits).
  • The sample sizes are very small (and do not cover anywhere near all of my play), so maybe I can't say anything very concrete about the results.
  • While the 2/4 results are pretty hot, the 1/2 results definitely including some nasty downswings, especially at OnGame and iPoker. I am sure that the 2/4 average will come down, and the 1/2 will go up if I keep playing.
  • I *seem* to be playing better at higher limits than lower, which may say something about my (slightly laggy) style of play. The higher limits have also been more recent, so perhaps I am just improving.

The last few days I have been playing at Eurolinx (microgaming via RTR), which is working out well. I am well up in play, and I am half way to completing a $100 bonus, have accumulated plenty of rakeback, and have a shot at $100 or so in the rake race that finishes at the end of the month.

It is also worth noting that now feel completely comfortable at 2/4 (up to about 3 tables), and that it is very nice to be able to report that the good results are not restricted to Pacific. This is a significant milestone, since 2/4 feels like a transition from the microstakes to "proper" small stakes such as 3/6 4/8 and 5/10, where signifcant profits can start to be made.

5 comments:

parttimebonuschaser said...

nice work mate. I could use a heater like that right about now myself :)

I suspect there's a reasonable softness in a lot of the eurolinx games, which might be helping the win rate too. I am pretty keen to get back there once i'm done with crypto again.

You're right though, sample size is too small to be very meaningful yet. I figure for myself my play style probably changes slightly before any sample size gets big enough to be meaningful, so as a result my past performance is never going to be reflective of my current play.

That is kind of why I keep checking back through my stats and play to make sure no new leaks have emerged.

L4Y SP said...

My theory is that bad players dont have blogs . LOL . and your bankroll seems to support that. I know what you mean about micro to proper stakes . I'm not sure I'll ever make the mental adjustment above .5/1 . keep it up . adam

The blindman said...

That's the trouble about poker, isn't it? You don't really know if you're a winning player until you have played 100k hands or so, and so assessing a change in strategy is almost impossible!

Adam, don't lose hope. Nine months ago I was playing 0.1/0.2, and desperately trying not to lose my precious $30 bankroll!

TiocfaidhArLa said...

I don't get the title ... it should read "much better than I though I was".

There has been a lot written about how the low stakes games are unbeatable long term thanks to the rake. With online being 5% and capped that's less true.

These days though the quality of player is much higher. Also with multi-tabling you are facong the best players on multiple tables.

No matter how you cut it, you are beating a game that is getting tougher and tougher. Moving up in limits with the discipline you've applied to date is a winning formula.

Congratulations!

The blindman said...

Thanks for the vote of confidence, TFAL. Incidentally, my pants caught fire again on the 2/4 tables tonight (Littlewoods and Eurolinx), and I ended up around 40BB to the good.