Year end summary

Well December has ended the year in pretty disastrous fashion. From an opening balance of $2710, the month ended with a deficit of $665 to end on $2045. The stats suggest that there was a significant cooler going on at 2/4, with W$SD of under 40%. But I suspect I have not been playing my best at times, with VPIP and PFR creeping a little too high at 34 and 22 respectively.

Unfortunately I missed my year-end target of $3000, but on the upside I had another successful live satellite and played well in the $1100 buyin Aussie Millions satellite, finishing pretty close to the big package places at 33rd.

Overall the year has been quite a ride, and pretty successful given my modest beginning. I started on about January 10th, with a $10 no-deposit bonus at VCpoker. The first week I must have hit quite a heater, as I managed to turn the $10 into $70 playing 0.1/0.2 and 0.25/0.5 limit. i broke $100 within three weeks, but then went through some crazy swings after joining Tower poker: down to $30, back up to $100, down to $17, up to $50, down to $20. Finally I managed another upswing, followed by cashing (just in time) a $96 bonus on Tower along with a couple of quads promotion bonuses ($50 each).

By early March, I had a BR over $250. By mid-April I cracked $400, and bought into Pacific via Pokerlistings for the 50% $150 bonus. Pacific was another rollercoaster, where I started with a huge run of bad beats. On one day in particular, I had a huge succession of big pairs from JJ through to AA cracked time after time. I hit a low of $150, before recovering via a couple of heaters and finishing the bonus. By the end of April, I was close to $600 and feeling pretty confident.

May was something of a landmark month, where I had quite a bit of tournament success. My first foray to the casino was a $60 satellite for the $100,000 Sapphire series final ($1100 buyin). I won through to the top four places out of 100 to make the final. Also in May, I came second in a 100 player tournament for a $200 cash, won a 94 player freeroll and cashed in a few SNGs. May was also when I cracked $1000 for the first time.

June through August were a flatline online, though I did play another live sat (busting top 3rd with AA aipf) and then the Sapphire series final (where I scraped into the top half in a pretty dry run).

Finally in September I had a really big $1k month. This coincided with the discovery of William Hill and kickback bonuses. October was also pretty good overall, with over $700 profit. Since then it hasn't been good hunting online, but the sub-satellite win and playing in the Aussie Millions Satellite were probably the highlights of the year. I also had a break-even shot at live 10/20 limti, which I was quite happy about. The year ends with a BR of around $2050, having taken $350 in profit dividends through the year.

On the whole I am pleased with the year, especially the satellite wins. My aim overall was to build up to playing serious stakes poker, and in a sense I have achieved that with the live tournament finals and a few shots at 5/10 online and 10/20 live.

I'll post my New Year's goals in a few days time.

Silliness

So after dumping all that cash last night I did a very very dumb thing: I signed up for a 10,000 player SNG on Pokerstars :-o

Stars are running these around the clock as a Christmas promo, adding $10,000 priemoney to the $1 buyins. The whole thing was not quite as turbo as I expected. Anyway, I did far too good in it for my own wellbeing, and ended up playing five hours or so, finishing inside the top 250 for a massive payout of about $18 :-/ By the end, I was just about delirious and I got snapped off shoving all-in with 42o when I wasn't too short, but the blinds were massive.

At the same time, I finished 18/216 in a $2 shootout for a couple of Sunday million places and also managed to go out first hand in a 375FPP, 36 player Sunday Million satellite. I picked up AA, and made a large raise of about 8bb for two callers. I shoved on a flop of QT4 rainbow, and they both called: AQ and QT. No improvement, and I was gone.

Grrrr...

Sadly, it seems like every heater in the last two months in matched by a cooler twice as bad.

I just dumped 30BB on Eurolinx in ridiulously short order (playing the 2/4 Euro that I should have been steering clear of). Normal stuff - my KT trips beaten by KJ, my KJ in the BB 3 bet pre (vs 100% SB stealer), runs into a turned flush from 69hh to beat my top pair. W$SD=35%.

My bankroll is in really hideous shape now.

At long last: a heater

A little one, but at least it's nice to be reminded that sometimes the cards do turn your way. This one was just one table of 1/2 (Euro) and only half an hour, but was around 25BB running at around 55 and 65 (WTSD and W$SD) - in contrast to my recent form of 40 W$SD at 2/4 this month. The funny thing was that I seemed to be flopping monsters (trips, flushes, two pair) even when I had folded pre. If I was playing way too loose, I might have won twice that much :)

Anyway, I wish you all a very happy Christmas and a nut New Year.

Busto

Unfortunately, it looks as though my ambitions of playing the in the main event of the Aussie Millions will have to wait for another year.

The final satellite today was for eigth $12k packages plus $4k for ninth, with 100 runners. I played pretty well and saw some decent cards, but sadly busted out in 33rd. I'm not too disappointed - that's my fifth live tournament, and I have placed in the top half every time.

I started out with a rush in the first hour - the deck smacked me in the face for a little while. I started out by making 2k or so (starting stacks were 5k) with a top straight vs a 2nd straight (but with 3 diamonds on board). Shortly after that, I had K9dd (maybe overlimped or maybe in the BB). Flop came K98 and I led for half the pot. Big stack on my right raised and I called. Turn was a K, and he check/called a big bet from me. River 8, and I bet the pot for nearly all my chips. He called and mucked with an obscenity after I tabled - I guess he had the case king.

I got a bit lucky when the short stack pushed all-in and I called with AT in the BB. He showed AK, but I hit the ten to put him out. Coincidentally, this was the same guy I busted on the bubble with aces in the qualifier - and once again he took it like a complete gentleman. After this I was probably up to about 13-14k in chips, and still only in the 2nd level (50/100).

Our table was the first to break, sadly and I had to move. On the new table, I turned up a nice looking pair of black kings. MP who had been busy in a number of pots (and was quite short) raised, I reraised and he shoved. I called instantly, and was dismayed to see aces which held up. This put me down to about 11k.

After that, the deck went a bit dry on me. I had a couple of steals/Cbets snapped off, and struggled for a while with 6-7k chips. Our table broke again, which was probably no bad thing for me.

At the new table I raised the first hand in with something like A9 on the button. As the blinds crept up to ludicrous levels (400/800, 500/1000 with the average stack only 12k or so), I found myself able to steal blinds fairly often despite getting snapped off a couple of times. From a low of 6k, I shoved with TT to pick up about 3k, and won blinds and the odd limp with hands like AQ, 66, A3 on the button.

With 35 players left and blinds at 500/1000, I was actually sitting reasonably solidly with around 15k in chips. Then the blinds came around a couple of times with no stealing opportunities. It folded to me in the SB holding J9. I raised of course, but the BB shoves back at me forcing a fold. He was a nice bloke who played pretty tight in the blinds and I have little doubt that he had the goods (QQ he claimed). I now had only 8.5k, and a few hands later I pick up AQ. MP limped, as he had done rather frequently. I raised to 4k, and it folded back to MP who shoved. With only 4.5k more, I called. He showed KQ, but unfortunately hit his three outer to bust me out in 33rd. Maybe I should have shoved the AQ, but on the whole you cant be too unhappy about being all-in as a 3-1 favourite.

I'm not really disappointed at all. I played pretty well, and got pretty close to the action end of the tournament. I got unlucky a couple of times in the middle, but overall saw my fair share of good cards. One thing I noticed was how fast the blinds seemed to rise: after only about three and a half hours, the BB was up to around 1/15th of the average stack. It makes playing real poker rather difficult.

One little side-note: The tourney took place in Burswood's new poker room, which is quite nice and thankfully isolated from the infernal slot machines. The aircon was stuffed though, so it was a bit of a furnace. After about three hours of play I was ravenous, having had too light a lunch. I took the opportunity to grab a Danish in the ten minute break, but the slow service at the bar meant play had already resumed by the time I got back with Danish in hand. At this point, I discovered that they have a very strange no food rule in the poker room. Do they really expect people to survive for six hours of poker with no opportunity for nourishment? Anyway my Danish was banished to the bottom of the drinks table, so I ordered a Banana smoothie from the drinks waiter. The concoction that arrived was this ridiculous thing topped with whipped cream and chocolate sauce. I ate the cream with the supplied spoon while exchanging glances with the tournament director (and carefully not touching my Danish).

Woohoo! Qualified for the WBCOOP final!

Finished 48/~400 in the PLO split. Not a bad effort, considering I was playing distracted (i.e working) most of the time, and missed maybe 30% of the hands. I started in my lunch hour and bumbled along happily at a very weak tight table. I stole a lot of pots PF and on the flop, and also made a few good showdown hands.

I actually was very well placed with about 50 places left (got up to $45k chips), and lost a couple of huge hands to go out. Was very close to grabbing a step 2 ticket on top of the final ticket.

Perhaps this is part of my problem?

No sooner have I sworn to step down in stakes until I get my mojo back, I suddenly find myself sitting at a 3/6 Euro table. I logged into Eurolinx, which has now dumped all dollar tables in favour of Euro only (or rather Microgaming has). There being no 1/2 or 2/4 tables running, I had a look at the 3/6, and found several juicy looking fish. I couldn't resist, and sat down with my last $100.

The series of hands below illustrate rather well why it is a bad thing to play above where you are feeling comfortable. Over about 35 hands, I went up 30, down 50, until finally on that last hand, I was all-in before winning a nail biter to recover my original EUR80. Heart in mouth, I stood up immediately.



Not entirely happy with my play. A couple of those I think I should have folded before showdown (perhaps a bet-fold on the turn instead of check-call check-call).

Incidentally, I am astonished at Micro's decision to cut the dollar tables. It seems to have cut traffic already. Euro tables result in more rake, as the cap is EUR3 instead of $3. You also accumulate points and raked hands slower, because the rates of accumulation are currency independent. All in all, it stinks pretty bad. I quite like Eurolinx, but if the dollar tables don't come back, my days there are probably numbered.

A corker to cap it off on Stars:

Downer

I am in the middle of the biggest downswing of my short career. In November and December I have lost a pretty obscene amount for the stakes I play - probably going on for 300 big bets or so. It has completely destroyed my previously good position at 2/4 stakes.

I'm not sure what to make of it. I suspect I am getting a little bit lazy, a little bit undisciplined, but I have also taken some horrific beats recently. I think I will need to take stock a little, and hop back down to mainly 1/2 for a while until I get my mojo back. I'll allow exceptions for chasing very good value bonuses, but that's it.

Longer term, I have some rethinking to do. Maybe shorthanded limit just isn't the right game for me. Even the best players have pretty thin win rates and high variance. Perhaps I will bite the bullet and jump into NL full-time. I can buy a Stox subscription with my Eurolinx points, so I may also look at that and see if I can find some inspiration.

My most recent move was to take a Eurolinx reload, which is excellent value when added to the rakeback and RakeTheRake rake races. Unfortunately I blew the whole deposit in one sitting, leaving me to wonder whether I can complete the bonus at all.

No-limit strategy note: bet sizing

Most poker players have a pretty good understanding of pot odds and outs, and therefore are often able to make a correct decision when deciding whether to call with a drawing hand. My suspicion is that many players do not have as good an understanding of how to correctly size their bets when they are in front - or if they do follow a "pot" or "2/3 pot" rule of thumb, they do not understand *why* it is correct.

I want to discuss briefly how we can judge whether a bet size is correct or not. Let's take a very simple example:

You hold Ah Ks, and the board reads 5h Kh As 2d. There is $100 in the pot, and there is one player left who called your preflop and flop bets. Both players have $200 behind. Let's first ask the question of what your equity is in this pot. To simplify the situation, we will remove implied odds and fold equity from the equation and say that both hands are face up on the table. Your opponent is drawing to a flush (as you strongly suspected) with Th 9h.

You might think that calculating your equity is a simple matter of working out how many cards do not make a flush for your opponent (36 out of 44) abd taking that proportion of the pot (or about $82). That is not correct - your pot equity on the turn is $100, for the simple reason that your opponent should not see a river card. There is a betting round remaining, and you will bet a suitable amount to ensure that your opponent does not have the odds to call. If your opponent calls without proper odds, your equity in the pot will actually increase.

So how much should you bet? In this situation, a bet of more than 8/36 (the ratio of his outs to non-outs or $23 in this case) will ensure that he does not have odds to call. In practice, you would probably wish to bet a fair amount more than this for a few reasons:

• He may have more outs than you think, such as a gutshot+FD
• You want to gain a significant amount if he calls poorly - you should make the biggest bet that you think he will call with bad odds.

A more important reason is that in reality you cannot see his cards, and therefore it may be very difficult to fold if the flush card comes. If your hand is so strong that you are not able to fold a dangerous river card, you need to take implied odds into account. In this situation, your opponent stands to gain the pot ($100) plus your stack ($200) if he hits his flush. Therefore, you must ensure that the bet is large enough that the odds offered (8:36) do not give him correct implied odds to call. In this case, $67 is the magic number or $100 if he has a gutshot FD.

In reality, we don't have the time to make very precise calculations about odds and equity so we use "rules of thumb" when we think our opponent is drawing. What is so special about a pot-size bet? A pot size bet offers your opponent pot odds of 2:1 on a call. This in conveniently close to the outs calculation for a big draw with a single card to come like FD+OESD (15 outs), FD+overcards (15 outs if the overcards are clean), FD+small pair (usually 14 outs). Therefore when you bet the pot on the turn, you ensure that only the biggest draw has a marginal call.

Betting on the flop is a bit more complicated due to the fact that there are two cards to come. In general as long as you price out the small draws they will have difficulty in calling given that they face another big bet on the turn if they want to see the river. Betting on the flop, you should not worry too much about the big draws because it is almost impossible to propoerly price them out. For example, a FD+OESD has 15 outs and two chances to hit - which adds up to a 55% raw equity assuming they can see both remaining cards. In other words, a big draw will probably shove the flop irrespective of your bet size.

On the basis of these thoughts, I would regard a bet of 2/3 to 3/4 pot as appropriate if you are not pot committed and the draw is clear. If you feel pot committed due to your hand strength or stack size, then a pot size bet should be the minimum.

This is a fairly simplified analysis which does not consider fold equity or multiple opponents, but I hope it explains my thinking on bet sizes. I'd appreciate any thoughts.

Dances with aces: a step towards the Aussie Millions

There was a little satellite running tonight at the local casino: $125 buyin, top 10 (out of 100) win a place in a $1100 buyin final (also 100 players). Prizes in the final will be $12,000 packages to the Aussie Millions $10,500 Main Event.

I went down for the first time without Sidekick. Started slow - picked up a few small pots uncontested with hands like AK and AJ. Got to first break after an hour with about my starting chips (3k). Kept treading water and made it to second break with around an average chip stack (which by this time was probably around 5k).

Sometime after the second break, I got an interesting hand of 75hh in the BB. Four players see a flop of Ah8s6h with two hearts. Check around to my right, who bets about 2/3 pot. I shove, having him only just covered - I figure to be leading almost any hand except for a pair of 8s with a better FD, and I don't want to have to make a tougher decision on the turn. Another player hollywoods and folds a 97 (supposedly). Original raiser calls with AQ. Fortunately a heart arrives on the river, and I nearly double up. The very next hand, I pickup AKss and a small stack shoves into me. I reshove to get heads up and he shows QJ. Neither of us improve, and suddenly I'm sitting table leader with maybe 35 players left or so.

After that, I sat tight with a pretty cold deck. Bad preflop cards at least makes the decisions easy. I was moved to another table for about a round, before that table was broken up, and I ended back in the exact same seat I left. Only now there are 30 players left and nearly everybody is short.

I picked up a couple of raising hands (AK, AJss), and took down some blinds (now 700/1400 with my stack sitting around the 15k mark). Also got a couple of big blind walks which helped a little. The trouble is that a lot of this play from 30 down is short handed, meaning that the blinds come very fast and it is sometimes necessary to play sub-premium hands.

Anyway, I keep playing tight and make it to the third break with 20 players left. Blinds go up to 1000/2000, and a few small stacks go out. But I am really short stacked now (maybe 13000) after an attempted steal gets snapped off by a shortie holding trips on the flop. With around 14 players left, I get 88 UTG. After some thought I fold reluctantly, preferring a better spot. I was very thankful for that fold, since the BB turns over aces busting out another shortie (Dances with Aces #1).

We get down to 12 to go, and I am still short (feeling like I need to find a hand to steal a round of blinds with). I find ATdd, and shove from MP and get called after a bit of Hollywood by "the Geezer" in the BB. He turns over A9cc, and I breathe a little. Flop comes 873, turn 9 (ack!!) and a river J to save my behind. A few hands later, and with a few chips to play with I turn over JJ UTG. I raise to 6k with 20k behind. MP shoves, and at some point a player on the other table busts out (we are playing hand for hand at this stage on two tables to get down to 10). It turns out that MP matches my stack exactly, so a call from me would end the tournament right there. I Hollywood for a while and fold face up, figuring that I'm flipping at best but very likely behind. MP shows his AA, and I get lots of 'great fold' calls from around the table. I actually thought it was a pretty easy fold in the circumstances (Dances with Aces #2).

It plays tight for a little while longer when a short stack on our table shoves from MP. I look down at shiny aces, and stick my chips in with an apology. I have very little behind, but nobody is so short that I can afford to fold aces PF. MP shows QJ, doesn't improve and we're going to round two baby (Dances #3)! The table thought it was karma for my JJ fold.

Mornings suck..

I don't know why, but I always run bad in the mornings. I also seem to have this propensity recently of following a small heater with a bigger cooler.

I played a couple of 2/4 tables on Eurolinx this morning and got dumped for about 50BB in the space of about half an hour. It was a massacre: AA cracked by trips, top and third pair cracked by top two, top pair stuffed by turned two pair or turned trips. WTSD 46, W$SD 22. The one mitigating factor is that I will get $25 back for the aces cracked hand due to Eurolinx' "aces never lose" promotion.

This month is *not* going well.

Pokerstars: so far, so good

I was under the impression that players at Pokerstars were better on average than other sites. TAGgier and tougher. Maybe I was wrong.

I played one table for an hour or so tonight and picked up 35BB in pretty quick time. A heater and a small sample admittedly, but the players seemed really quite bad. A couple of too aggressive (60/40 type) players, and a couple of loose/weak players (44/0 and too tight post flop).

Anyway, I've turned my $50 deposit into $120 so far and I will see how I go while finishing my deposit bonus. I probably won't stay while I have Rakeback elsewhere, but you never know.

WBCOOP!

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

The WBCOOP is an online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers.

Registration code: 470094

That's Omaha for you

... Get all the chips in on the turn holding the nut straight only to be beaten on the river card by the nut flush *and* a straight flush.

[hand history deleted because the converter doesn't recegnise it as Omaha! see comment]

In case anyone's wondering about the PF call, this is OnGame where you earn points only where you contribute to the pot. I limp a fair few hands based on point value alone, and continue only when I hit the flop fairly hard. Top pair plus OESD was hard enough for me. Turn is perfect, so I shove as I must knowing full well that a club will kill me. I could have folded those last couple of dollars comfortably knowing I was lost.

All was not doom and gloom however, as I managed to turn $10 into $70 on a $25 PLO table and stay alive on another. All up, not a bad little session.

Note that the winner hit a two outer to scoop the pot!

A poker gadget

I have been tinkering with Javascript, and have started working on a little gadget to aid the online poker player.

Have a look and tell me what you think.

My objective is to have a convenient way to visualise a player's hand ranges based on statistics. The idea is that if a villain raises 15% under the gun, you move the slider to 15 in order to visualise an approximation of the villain's range. I have four prioritised sliders - the left one has highest priority, so should be used for the smallest number and so on. You'll get the idea after you play with it for a bit.

The hand rankings are based on a 100k hand simulation of four random hands going to the river. I use four as a compromise between the ten handed sim and heads up. The hand rankings will always be a subjective consideration. I may modify the gadget to allow the selection of different hand rankings.

Comments?

Ultimately I want to include actual hand simulation against the villain's range. As in, you enter your hand (e.g KK) and get an estimate of heads up equity against the specified villain's range. I'm not sure if I would be able to do that in javascript though.

A bit of fun

Just on a whim, I signed up for a little 20-seat sit 'n go last night (3.75 with rebuys and addons). It turned out that it was a super shorthanded tournament with four seat tables. This turned out to be very interesting, and really good practice for blind stealing a sizing bets correctly. The players were almost uniformly dismal (to be expected at that buyin), playing either weak tight or loose passive. I was able to steal blinds and bluff the flop at will, and was given excellent odds to chase straights and flushed by all the postflop minbetting. Anyway, I didn't have to rebuy at all (I intended to double my stack at the start but won the first hand and never dropped below starting chips after that) and just took the addon after 30min. Finished up in 2nd for about $38 or so.

I had a good session at the cash tables too, ending up $100 up or so. Unfortunately I then sat at two very fishy tables late in the evening and pissed away the entire evening's profit on a massive cooler over about half an hour (running at about 30%WTSD and 33%W$SD) *sigh*.

Book Review: Winning Low Limit Holdem by Lee Jones

The overwhelming impression I have of this book, is that you could lose an awful lot of money by applying its strategies in the wrong game. Don't get me wrong, it's a reasonable book and contains a lot of good advice - but much of that advice is predicated on the game being very loose and very passive and most definitely full ring. In fact, a more fitting title would be "Winning in loose passive full-ring holdem games", but I guess that doesn't ring so well.

The book is pitched at so-called "low limit" games - up to around the 5/10 level, but I have to say that I am far from convinced that most or even many games at that level are as loose and passive as Lee Jones assumes. The third edition is a couple of years out of date, and so in particular his comments about the looseness of online play is pretty much obsolete. Also it is very hard to find full ring limit games online now, and it would be a disaster to translate Jones' advice to the 6-max games.

Another frustration is that the advice is often quite vague. I have been reading 'Stox' recently (another review to come of that book - when I have fully absorbed it), and the very precise analysis and advice in that book is in stark contrast to Lee Jones' book. Admittedly, the books are pitched at completely different audiences and games, however I still think Lee Jones' book would do better by being more precise in its advice and more clear on the assumption upon which such advice is predicated.

There are a few places where Jones makes statements that are just simply wrong in my view. I would be interested to know if anyone else agrees.

• He advocates checking JJ and AK in the big blind, planning to checkraise favourable flops. In my view you have too much preflop equity not to raise with JJ and AK, regardless of the number of callers.
• The advice almost always assumes there are many players seeing the flop. While this is often the case, even in loose games there will be a proportion of hands which are two or three handed on the flop. Therefore his advice to automatically give up hands like top pair no kicker or second pair on the flop is going to lose money in those occasional shorthanded on the flop situations.
• He says to checkraise with an overpair on the flop only if you expect that to knock players out, otherwise to bet out. In my view, if players are likely to call two cold, that is an excellent reason to checkraise, therefore maximizing your equity.
• He gives an insane piece of advice in the section on "dealing with a maniac" where there is a flush draw on the flop. He advocates folding TPTK when the flush card comes on the turn. This makes no sense to me. I am generally calling down even when the fourth suited card hits the river.

Overall, this is a book that is worth reading but that must be examined critically. I would not recommend it to a beginner, because there are too many ways that they can misinterpret or misapply the advice. Two stars out of five.

November summary

Opening balance: $2546

Closing : $2708.74

For a rather pathetic monthly profit of $163. Given that this included a big chunk of rakeback (about $250), a couple of decent rake races (about $250), and a massive heater in a shot at 5/10 (about $300) it means (the rest of) my play was utterly dismal (ooh, about -$650). Still, I managed not to go backwards, which has got to be better than nothing eh?

Will carry forward $2295 in the online bankroll, and AUD$550 offline. Exchange rates will make future months a tricky calculation.

Bad things(tm) this month:

• Getting hammered at OPoker (Crypto) and Eurolinx (Micro) for a lot
• 2/4 coming back to earth with a thump (after the early heater, I briefly went negative before recovering a bit
• Losing money from play
  

Good things(tm) this month:

• Pacific fishies
  
• Massive heater at 5/10
• A fair first crack at live 10/20, managing not to lose money
• Rake races at Eurolinx and OPoker
• Rakeback
• Pacific fishies
• Not losing money overall

On the further upside, December has started with a bit of a bang. This was one of those miracle hands that just kept getting better:



On another table, I was playing against a massive, massive maniac. Maybe the biggest I ever saw. This guy raised about 50% of his PF hands, and played them almost all to the river for maximum betting. I don't think I am exaggerating. He hammered me a few times when he hit a set of fours (capped pre), a rivered str8 w J9o (capped pre), and a better pair on the turn.

But finally, revenge was mine:



Postscript: perhaps the funniest thing I ever saw at a poker table.

A little no-limit, I think to myself

I decided to check out the full ring no-limit tables on Tilt.

Bought in for $50 on a couple of tables (both 0.5/1). I played ok, and the tables were fishy enough. One table got up to $140 or so, when my AA got taken down by a rivered two pair. Built back up to $100, and then disaster struck.

In three consecutive hands, I picked up JJ. First two, no problems. Third one, disaster:



I should explain that the villain here is a big fat fish. I saw him donk off $200 in an earlier hand with his QQ with the board showing JT792 - the other guy flopped a straight and bet all the way to the river. In general, he was playing an awful lot of hands (his PFR is about 13). The river is obviously a gagging call, but I think the pot got too big for me to be able to fold. Should I have raised more on the flop or turn (I don't suppose it matters with him holding a huge draw lihe that)?

Finally: Live 10/20

I finally got to the casino for some live 10/20. We (me and SidekickBoy) rocked up around 10 to 8 and found two tables of 5/5 NL, one of 10/20 Limit, and surprisingly a table of 10/20 limit Omaha. I signed up for limit, and had to wait nearly 45 minutes for a second table to open. Sidekick jumped onto the (very fishy looking) Omaha table.

My table was a real mixed bag. There were probably four or five pretty decent players, and three or four loose passive who would see nearly every flop. Fortunately, I found a good seat with the loose players all on my right and tight players on my left (though there was never ever an opportunity to blind steal).

I only played about two hours and twenty minutes, and within that time found myself down $150, up $150 and ended up going home with a grand profit of... $10. Well, at least I beat the rake! In fact, it could have been so much better than that as I was up about $200 until the river card of the fourth last hand.

It panned out like this: I had A9o in middle position (second hand in a row). As usual, there were a couple of limpers ahead of me so I limped as well. Player to my right (good player) limps, and the blinds come along. Flop comes down J92 with two diamonds. Checks around to me, I check, bet, blinds fold, two calls and I call. Turn is a beautiful 9 of clubs. Checks around to the raiser, who bets, fold, call, checkraise, and he calls reluctantly. River is 8 of diamonds. Checks to me, and I make an idiotic bet into the river card which has hit about 75% of drawing hands. Inevitable raise, call and I make a crying call to see his QT for a rivered straight. I played it ok except for the idiotic bet on the river. Big pot to lose when you're getting ready to go home!

I had a couple of other nasty beats. One was to the table moron who called UTG and I raised w QQ. Three saw the flop of T66: check, check, bet, call, call. Turn J, check, check, bet, UTG checkraises (uh oh - maybe he has a Jack but I'm very unhappy). I call him down (foolishly probably) and he shows 96o, and he starts going on about the "good feeling" he had about nine six frigging offsuit. I saw this same guy donk off about four bets on the river with the bottom straight to a guy that obviously help the nuts (guy with the nuts thought he saw splitting and didn't keep raising!)

Another river beat was with me playing A6s in the SB, hitting an ace on the flop and a 6 on the turn. Got a checkraise in on the turn, only for a nine on the river to pair the board to counterfeit my sixes and turn AK into the winner.

I don't think I made too many mistakes, although one was on a hand where I played Q7s in the SB. I made a flush draw on the flop, and it checked around. Turn gave me a gutshot, and I bet out as a semibluff. MP checkraised and I called (with one other). River lands my gutshot with the board showing 6543J. I foolishly fail to bet and it checks around. It's obviously stupid to attempt to checkraise on a scary board like that.

Other nice hands were AQ hitting an ace on the flop, and holding up despite a fairly scary board and an aggressive player betting into me; and 77 hitting top set on a rainbow board - I called the flop, then bet and three bet the Q turn (when the other player folded his two small pairs).

I'm going to have to learn to play Limit Omaha, because that table was just ridiculously bad. Here is how bad it was: I watched one pot where the flop was A24 rainbow. Eight players (I am not exaggerating) paid capped betting on the flop. As I watched it unfold, I though that it was obvious after about the second raise that at least one player had a wheel, and probably redraws to a higher straight. It played out to the river where only one player out of those eight had the wheel, one had a set of aces (also pretty obviously), so Lord only knows what the rest could have had - there wasn't even the possibility of a massive wrap straight draw the way the cards lay. The final pot was something close to $800. It's fishy, but the variance will be huge.

Anyway, I beat the rake which is not a bad achievement for the first 10/20 game, and the first live cash. Sidekick meanwhile made a very handy $250 profit at the ridiculous Omaha table.

A bit of fun

I'm planning to play a PLO tournament at the local casino tonight for a bit of fun. It's a R&A tournament, and my plan at this stage is not to rebuy but to take the addon if it seems sensible at the time. If I bust early, I will look to play some holdem cash.

I "warmed up" for this last night by turning $40 into $140 on two PLO tables, so that theoretically covers my buyin. These PLO tournaments are generally full of terrible players, so even though I don't really know PLO well I rate myself a modest chance of a good result.

Edit: Looks like the PLO is off for tonight. My partner in crime, aka "SidekickBoy" can't make it. It's probably not a bad thing, since I'm not willing to invest the 5-6 buyins that it takes for a serious tilt at an R&A tournament.

Muppets at sizable stakes and a ridiculous heater

TFAL's instinct was right - $5/$10. I kid you not. The site? I probably don't even need to tell you - suffice it to say that it is full of fish (and it's not Eurolinx).

It was a massive heater to begin with. The very first hand was blind vs blind against the maniac. I conveniently outkicked his pair. Pocket tens making top set against four runners was pure gold (but no doubt aided by the extra bets from all the loose bad players).

The 3-bet from the SB with K8s seems a bit ludicrous, but the button was stealing with any two. The BB coming along was a big problem, but I felt obliged to Cbet, getting heads up with the lunatic. Nothing on the turn, and normally I would fold - but the button was holding random cards as far as I was concerned, so I reluctantly called down. The result was nothing short of astonishing.



In the end my heater went off the boil - the maniac inevitably got paid off hitting a real hand. The maniac busted out and I departed the table 35BB to the good.

Guess the stakes

Starting from my left:

Player 1: Idiot 60/15, WTSD/W$SD 65/35, fairly aggro postflop, saw him defend 83o in the BB unimproved to the river
Player 2: Loose passive 82/9, aggr 0.6, saw him fold on the river in a big pot with an obvious split pot
Player 3: Loose passive 47/0, aggr 0.4, WTSD/W$SD 30/70. Despite the ridiculous stats, I think he plays pretty well postflop and I have seen him win a lot of money in this game.
Player 4: 55/15, aggr 0.8, WTSD/W$SD 40/60
Player 5: Complete raving lunatic 85/56, WTSD/W$SD 60/30, very aggro postflop

I have position on the lunatic. Any guesses as to the stakes and site? Bear in mind I've been on a bit of a cooler recently.

Will add the answer to my post (along with some hands and results) after a couple of comments.

Feels like home

I've now recovered my composure after running over the tables at Pacific for an hour. 40BB profit, mostly from one table (WTSD 44, W$SD 81!)

God I love those 60/5 fishies: free flops in the BB with 85o are gold.

We're comin' back baby!

And so it continues

The session was going badly already, after I ran into aces with a hand THREE times. Also flopped two pair vs a set. Then this shit happened to cap it all off.



Yes folks, that's a one outer on the river.

p.s it was Euro

The dreaded downswing

This is horrible. I didn't realise quite how horrible until I looked at the graph:


That's nearly 150BB downswing played mostly at 2/4 in ooh, about three days. Excuse me while I go and have a little lie down.

Thoughts on rake

The following graph shows comparitive rake at the major poker sites compiled from shorthanded fixed limit data at marketrake.com:




There are a few interesting things to note about this graph. Firstly, 2/4 seems to be a bit of a sweet spot in terms of rake - cheaper than 3/6 and even 5/10 at some sites.

Secondly, the rake is very different from site to site. Cheapest by far are Full Tilt, Pokerstars and Everest. Sites like OnGame, iPoker and Micro sit nearly 50% higher. This puts things like VIP bonuses and rakeback in context. For example, you probably pay more rake at Microgaming compared to Pokerstars even if you have 30% rakeback.

It is also interesting to compare NL with limit. NL is typically cheaper than Limit, but the difference is not really marked until you go above 100NL

Lastly: never, ever, ever play 0.5/1 at Pacific!

Too much excitement: 5/10!

From time to time I will open a game at a higher limit than I play in order to observe hands and analyse play. I found a 5/10 table on Eurolinx, and after watching a while noticed the biggest fish I've ever seen at midstakes. He was 70/10 preflop, but folded to Cbets 60% of the time and played essentially weak tight postflop. The ultimate fish. I couldn't resist - I had to sit down.

Anyway, it was fairly nerve wracking stuff. I went down $60, back up to plus $50, down to -$100 and finally about level. The fish left after a short while, and I probably played on for too many hands after he left - especially when the player on my right woke up and started playing aggressively.

Anyway a few hands:

Naturally at my first hand playing 5/10 I run into aces! QTs was good enough to call a bet, and I played aggressively with the flush draw and turned gutshot. I guess villain was afraid of a 9, but I think his play was quite weak.

5/10 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	monkeybusiness	($453.63)
UTG+1	jugggg	($301.53)
CO	coolbrezze	($58.53)
BTN	joeparulesND	($250.94)
SB	donutmon	($478.13)
BB	Hero	($205.00)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is BB

monkeybusiness raises, 4 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, Hero raises, monkeybusiness calls

Turn: (4.2 BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, monkeybusiness calls

River: (6.2 BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, monkeybusiness calls

Final Pot: 8.2 BB
Hero shows:
monkeybusiness shows:

monkeybusiness wins 8.0 BB ( won +4.0 BB )
Hero lost 4.0 BB



Second hand soon after I get a very nice pair of ladies. I was gutted to see the ace after the PF cap, and was astonished when they both folded my Cbet. This is a very weak table! We haven't even seen the superfish jugggg yet.

5/10 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	donutmon	($418.13)
UTG+1	Hero	($169.00)
CO	monkeybusiness	($515.13)
BTN	jugggg	($251.53)
SB	coolbrezze	($56.03)
BB	joeparulesND	($327.94)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1

donutmon raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, coolbrezze 4-bets, 1 fold, donutmon calls, Hero calls

Flop: (13.0 SB, 3 players)
coolbrezze checks, donutmon checks, Hero bets, coolbrezze folds, donutmon folds

Final Pot: 7.0 BB

Hero wins 6.7 BB ( won +4.2 BB )
coolbrezze lost 2.0 BB
donutmon lost 2.0 BB


Hand 3 is a classic way ahead/way behind situation. Superfish jugggg seldom raises or 3 bets, so I have to put him on ace-big or a big pair. Maybe I missed an extra bet, but I was happy enough that he Cbet to the river with two overcards to his QQ!

5/10 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG	joeparulesND	($302.94)
UTG+1	donutmon	($402.38)
CO	Hero	($203.50)
BTN	monkeybusiness	($507.63)
SB	jugggg	($263.91)
BB	coolbrezze	($49.16)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, jugggg 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (7.0 SB, 2 players)
jugggg bets, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB, 2 players)
jugggg bets, Hero calls

River: (6.5 BB, 2 players)
jugggg bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 8.5 BB
jugggg shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins 8.2 BB ( won +4.2 BB )
jugggg lost 4.0 BB


Hand 4: This is an uncomfortable spot with a PF cap. Flopped TP+FD is nice, and I planned to checkraise. Turn 3-bet is scary. Maybe I can fold the river, but I think I have to call.

5/10 Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

CO	Hero	($220.50)
BTN	monkeybusiness	($498.35)
SB	coolbrezze	($81.32)
BB	joeparulesND	($316.57)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 4 players) Hero is CO

Hero raises, monkeybusiness 3-bets, coolbrezze 4-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, monkeybusiness calls

Flop: (13.0 SB, 3 players)
coolbrezze checks, Hero checks, monkeybusiness checks

Turn: (6.5 BB, 3 players)
coolbrezze bets, Hero raises, monkeybusiness folds, coolbrezze 3-bets, Hero calls

River: (12.5 BB, 2 players)
coolbrezze bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 14.5 BB
coolbrezze shows:
Hero shows:

coolbrezze wins 14.2 BB ( won +8.2 BB )
Hero lost 6.0 BB
monkeybusiness lost 2.0 BB


Hand 5: I played this really badly. PF is a marginal call I think. Checkraise with top pair of 5s is maybe pushing it a bit, but his 3-bet is almost certainly an overpair on that board. A FD is a thin possibility. I think I should probably fold the turn, and definitely the river after the third heart appears.

5/10 Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

CO	monkeybusiness	($478.35)
BTN	coolbrezze	($160.82)
SB	joeparulesND	($309.07)
BB	Hero	($165.50)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 4 players) Hero is BB

monkeybusiness raises, coolbrezze calls, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (6.5 SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, coolbrezze calls, Hero raises, monkeybusiness 3-bets, coolbrezze folds, Hero calls

Turn: (6.8 BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, Hero calls

River: (8.8 BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: 10.8 BB
Hero shows:
monkeybusiness shows:

monkeybusiness wins 10.4 BB ( won +6.0 BB )
coolbrezze lost 1.5 BB
Hero lost 4.5 BB

Hand 6: Now monkeybusiness is getting aggressive PF, albeit mostly with decent hands. OOP this is a tough spot on the flop. I'd appreciate ideas here.

5/10 Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

CO	Hero	($134.00)
BTN	monkeybusiness	($537.10)
SB	coolbrezze	($143.32)
BB	joeparulesND	($294.07)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 4 players) Hero is CO

Hero raises, monkeybusiness 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (7.5 SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, Hero calls

Turn: (4.8 BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, Hero folds

Final Pot: 5.8 BB

monkeybusiness wins 5.5 BB ( won +2.5 BB )
Hero lost 2.0 BB


Hand 7 is the saviour. I think I am getting better at correctly calling with a gutshot, and thankfully the magical card came on the turn. Also fortunate was both villains holding top pair to pay me off 6BB on the turn and river. After this I got up at the next BB a magical $1.50 ahead for the session. It was educational!

5/10 Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

CO	monkeybusiness	($562.23)
BTN	coolbrezze	($138.32)
SB	joeparulesND	($286.57)
BB	Hero	($119.00)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 4 players) Hero is BB

monkeybusiness raises, coolbrezze calls, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (6.5 SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, coolbrezze calls, Hero calls

Turn: (4.8 BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, monkeybusiness bets, coolbrezze calls, Hero raises, monkeybusiness calls, coolbrezze calls

River: (10.8 BB, 3 players)
Hero bets, monkeybusiness calls, coolbrezze calls

Final Pot: 13.8 BB
coolbrezze shows:
Hero shows:
monkeybusiness shows:

Hero wins 13.4 BB ( won +8.9 BB )
coolbrezze lost 4.5 BB
monkeybusiness lost 4.5 BB